Let's jump into Super Tuesday's slate with a pair of plus-money props from two up-and-coming prospects.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Josiah Gray Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+125)
| Mariners @ Nationals | |
| First Pitch | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Josiah Gray has always had the stuff — strong mid-90s fastball with a pair of secondary pitches (curveball and slider) that recorded a 45% whiff rate.
Gray struck out about a third of batters faced in every level during the minors and was dealt to Washington in the Trea Turner/Max Scherzer deal.
Gray struggled last season, however, putting up mediocre numbers. This was mostly understandable given his rookie status. But Gray projects to improve as he furthers his MLB career, and I think he's found something over the last month.
Gray has crushed this 5.5 line in five of his last six starts, picking up 45 strikeouts in 35 2/3 innings during the stretch (11.4 K/9). He posted a CSW rate over 30% in four of the outings and topped 35% twice.
His typical breaking offerings have been on par. His slider has posted a 46.1% whiff rate this season on its way to a -5 Run Value, while his curveball is forcing whiffs at a 35.4% rate.
Josiah Gray, 2 1st Inning Ks on Breaking Balls. pic.twitter.com/ZofvRPUtbI
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 25, 2022
Gray's four-seam fastball has always been the culprit for his poor numbers, and he's combined to post a +13 Run Value on the pitch over the past two seasons.
But his xwOBA on the pitch has dropped month-over-month so far in 2022 as more MLB hitters are swinging through it.
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Gray should continue to project value moving forward as his arsenal shows improved results.
And the Mariners don't scare me in this start, considering the lineup has posted the seventh-highest strikeout rate (23.6%) and the seventh-lowest wRC+ (89) against RHPs over the last month.
Both our Action Labs Player Props Tool and FanGraphs SaberSim project Gray around 5.7 punchouts Tuesday against Seattle. Given the plus-money line, I'll happily take a shot with Gray.
Pick: Over 5.5 Ks (+125)
Action Labs Grade: 8/10
Vinnie Pasquantino Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110)
| Tigers @ Royals | |
| First Pitch | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Vinnie Pasquantino is a plate-discipline guru. Between Rookie, High-A, and Double-A ball with the Royals farm system, the big-boy lefty walked 91 times and recorded just 104 strikeouts.
But Pasquantino has shown an intriguing level of power alongside his disciplined approach. He muscled an ISO north of .250 at all four MiLB levels, including .296 in Double-A, and Steamer projects him finishing with a .225 ISO for the rest of the MLB season.
He's already knocked two homers this season, including on his first-ever hit in the majors.
VINNIE PASQUANTINO’S FIRST HIT IS A HOMER[ pic.twitter.com/7khfFFeYgM
— Mr Matthew CFB (@MrMatthewCFB) July 2, 2022
Both of his homers this season came off Tigers pitcher Michael Pineda in the fourth inning, but he's picked up 12 total bases in his five games against Detroit this year.
I'm fine fading Beau Brieske, who has been shelled to the tune of a 5.70 xERA with a barrel rate north of 11%. His statistical profile is as bad as it gets:
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Pasquantino has the platoon split against Brieske as well. Given his absolute hatred of striking out, we just need to avoid the walks, and that plus-power potential should thrive to the tune of 2+ total bases.
Pick: Over 1.5 TBs (+110)
