Twins vs Braves Odds
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+145 | 9.5 -115 / -105 | +1.5 -135 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -170 | 9.5 -115 / -105 | -1.5 +115 |
Kolby Allard will make his first start of the year for the Atlanta Braves on Tuesday. Allard, who has made 35 starts in his Major League career, got hurt during Spring Training and has made just two brief starts in Triple-A this season. He'll look to get back on track against Kenta Maeda and the Minnesota Twins.
Maeda, like Allard, hasn't pitched much this season. In his first start in two months, he pitched pretty well against the Detroit Tigers, but the Braves are obviously a much better offense.
Atlanta has been one of the best hitting teams against right-handed pitching, while the Twins should be able to push across a few runs against Allard.
With that being the case, the over should be in play in this game.
Minnesota Twins
Maeda has a 6.86 ERA against a 3.96 xERA, but most of that damage was done in April, before he went on the Injured List with arm soreness. However, back in 2021 (prior to his Tommy John surgery), Maeda had a 4.66 ERA against a 3.73 xERA, so he has a history of getting results worse than expectations. Given how Atlanta has only struck out 18% of the time and walked 9.8% of the time off of righties in June, Maeda may have a tough outing.
Offensively, the Twins rank in the bottom third of the league with a .686 OPS this month. Their strikeouts have gone up a bit, but Allard has never been a big strikeout pitcher and has an 18.6% strikeout rate in his young career. Of the position players who are healthy, the Twins have seven batters with a .320+ xwOBA off lefties this season.
In relief, the Twins have been slightly above average with a 3.99 xFIP in June, though the bullpen's effectiveness will depend on how deep Maeda can pitch into the game. If he gets pulled early, expect the Braves to stack on some more runs.
Atlanta Braves
Allard hasn't pitched much this season, so it's hard to envision him going deep in this game. The Twins aren't an offensive juggernaut, but they have a reasonable lineup and should be able to scratch across a few runs, especially if Allard struggles with command — something likely from a pitcher who isn't in the full rhythm of the season yet.
The Braves have a stacked batting order, especially against righties, so Maeda will have his hands full. They have a 149 wRC+ in June with a .934 OPS. They have seven bats with a .330+ xwOBA, and five of those hitters are above .380. The top of the order should feast against Maeda.
Ronald Acuña Jr. has 17 homers and 35 steals and that's pretty good.pic.twitter.com/tSJ3tvkqo1
— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) June 27, 2023
In relief, Atlanta has been good. That's a concern for the over, but if Allard leaves the game relatively early the Braves will likely turn to some innings eaters, opening the door for the Twins to score.
Twins vs Braves Betting Pick
Maeda and Allard haven't shown enough to prove their opponents will be held in check. It's hard to not bet the total here. Yes, both teams have solid bullpens, but if either starter struggles to get through five innings, teams will be looking to get outs in any way possible. Take the over in this game, and play it to 10.5 (-120).
