Yankees vs. Blue Jays Odds, Pick
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-105 | 8.5 -120 / +100 | +1.5 -220 |
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-115 | 8.5 -120 / +100 | -1.5 +180 |
The Blue Jays have turned it on lately, with four wins in their last six games.
However, they still find themselves last in the AL East, though they've got a golden opportunity in front of them as they host the Yankees this week.
Can New York keep up its solid play and push the Blue Jays further down the standings? Let's get into our Yankees vs. Blue Jays pick for Monday, April 15.
New York Yankees
The Yankees will send Luis Gil to the mound in this one.
The right-hander has always flashed excellent strikeout upside with the inability to control his arsenal, and we've seen the most extreme version of that in 2024 with a spicy 36.8% strikeout rate and bloated 18.4% walk rate through two starts, one of which was against Toronto.
Gil hasn't pitched much at the major-league level, but we know from his years in the minors that he's never been much of a ground-ball pitcher and has always had command issues coupled with his exceptional strikeout talent. Toronto walked four times and struck out eight times against Gil last time, but ranks in the top eight of the league in both categories, so it's anyone's guess if that continues.
Given that Gil will be capped at around 80-to-100 innings this year — something very few people are talking about — it's highly improbable he'll make it through five frames, particularly with all the issues with walks. That would leave this game in the hands of the Yankees' bullpen, which sits atop baseball with a 3.34 ERA.
Offensively, there's not much else to say. New York is sporting a stunning 19.1% strikeout rate and a commanding 13.4% walk rate, two areas that will help it win many games. The power hasn't exactly been there, but the Yankees are eighth in home run-to-fly ball ratio and should produce plenty as the season wears on.
Toronto Blue Jays
Chris Bassitt is now 35 years old, and his success at this level was always suspect, at least in my eyes.
The right-hander doesn't profile like an overly imposing pitcher with very meek numbers in the strikeout column, and he's never been a ground baller, either. He's just been dependable for many innings of incredibly average production and nothing more. That's valuable in today's game, but it's important not to read into the tiny samples where he randomly boosted one of his traits.
So far this year, Bassitt has been really bad. He has watched his walk rate balloon to 12%, which has worked in chorus with a career-worst .284 expected batting average and an expected slugging just a point under .500. Batters are hitting the ball hard off of Bassitt, and more of those balls than ever are being shot in the air.
The Blue Jays, despite sitting at 8-8, profile incredibly similarly to the Yankees in this one around the man who will start the game. They've got the eighth-best bullpen in baseball and solid marks in strikeouts and walks on offense. As last year, it's all about whether this team can hit for power.
Yankees vs. Blue Jays
Betting Pick & Prediction
This is a tough one for me because I'd like to take the Over here, but the number's simply out of reach.
The truth is that even with both teams expected to get on base a ton, Rogers Centre isn't a home run park, and neither of these teams has displayed enough power to trust them to enter into a slugfest here.
Gil is, by far, the stronger of the two pitchers, despite his flaws. I expect him to get into trouble, but the Yankees' elite bullpen arms should be rested.
If this line dips back to 8.5 runs, I will play the Over rather than the Yankees, but this game calls for a Bassitt fade.
Pick: Yankees -105
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