Yankees vs. Orioles Odds
| Yankees Odds | -200 |
| Orioles Odds | +170 |
| Over/Under | 9 (-120 / +100) |
| Time | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
The New York Yankees will continue their opening divisional stretch as they head to the friendly confines of Camden Yards.
Baltimore's home field has become that of a second home to the Bronx Bombers, as they've enjoyed a tremendous amount of success there. Since 2017, New York is 31-14 at Camden and has put up awe-inspiring offensive numbers.
A trip to their home away from home may be just what the Yankees need after averaging only 3.5 runs per game so far this season. In their 45 games since 2017, they've averaged nearly 6.5 runs per game.
While many things have changed since then, many things remain the same. Baltimore has once again stumbled out of the gate, and its ace just went down for an indefinite amount of time.
Can Baltimore get up off the deck early in the season? Or will the Yankees use them to get right?
Yankees Bats to Come Alive Against Lyles
Jordan Lyles' first start of the season was eye-opening — but not in the way he would have liked it. The Rays got to him early and often as he surrendered five runs on seven hits and only made matters worse by surrendering three walks.
While it is only a one-start sample size, Lyles sits in the bottom 5% of the league in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and expected batting average.
Now, he'll be up against a Yankees team that has hit him fairly well historically. Over 51 at-bats, the current New York lineup is hitting .314 against Lyles. While its expected stats may point to regression offensively in this matchup, Lyles' poor first start outweighs that.
It will be interesting to see how the Yankees' left-handers perform, as Lyles is much worse against them in his career — and it just so happens that Aaron Hicks and Anthony Rizzo have been leading the Bombers offensively.
However, the forgotten man is Joey Gallo. Gallo has not made much contact so far this season, but every time he has, it's been staggering. Entering this matchup, nearly every single one of Gallo's expected offensive stats is in the top 1% of the league. He's bound to get going, and we very well could see it against Lyles.
Orioles Yet to Prove Much Offensively
The team with the worst record in baseball in 2021 has yet to show any signs of life as it's gotten off to a 1-5 start. While the pitching staff hasn't exactly shut down the opposition, a team can't win if it can't score.
The Orioles are averaging only two runs per game and are hitting .201 as a team through their first two series. However, when you look at this lineup, there's plenty of potential, as All-Star Cedric Mullins leads the way, along with Ryan Mountcastle and Anthony Santander.
They just haven't put it all together yet.
While many may look at their numbers against Jordan Montgomery and pick this game as their breakout, the Orioles faithful may need to slow their roll a bit.
Yes, Montgomery has surrendered a .302 batting average over 82 at-bats against the current Orioles lineup, but Statcast shows their quality of contact doesn't merit those results.
When their quality of contact and other metrics get factored in, that .302 average drops to an expected average of .226. Montgomery should be able to find success against the O's as long as he can keep the power righties, such as Trey Mancini and Mountcastle, from leaving the yard.
Yankees-Orioles Pick
If there was ever a spot for the Yankees to play to their Bronx Bombers nickname, it's here. Lyles has not been an average starter for years, and the Yankees are bound to break out as they've put good swings on the ball.
Look for the Yanks to get out ahead early and potentially tack on as they rough up Lyles and anyone else that follows him.
Pick: Yankees -1.5 (-130)
