Check out the Billy Quarantillo vs. Cub Swanson pick for UFC Tampa on Saturday, December 14, with my betting preview and breakdown.
Billy Quarantillo vs. Cub Swanson Odds
| Quarantillo Odds | -155 |
| Swanson Odds | +130 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-154 / +120) |
| Location | Amalie Arena, Tampa |
| Bout Time | Sunday, 12:15 a.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC Tampa odds as of Thursday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 310 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Some co-main event fights get that honor because of their importance to the division. Ranked competitors who may be a fight or two away from a title shot, or a prospect taking a big step up in competition as they continue their climb.
Others are there for the high probability they turn into a fun fight. Billy Quarantillo vs. Cub Swanson falls firmly in the latter camp.
Both fighters are scrappy strikers who usually put on a show, win or lose. If you counted his four performance bonuses in the now-defunct WEC (which was owned by the UFC at the time), Swanson would be tied for seventh on the UFC's all time performance bonus list. Quarantillo averages over seven significant strikes per minute — while absorbing more than five.
Unfortunately we can't bet on which fight will win "Fight of the Night" honors, so let's look elsewhere to find some betting value on this one.
Here's my Quarantillo vs. Swanson pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Quarantillo | Swanson | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 18-6 | 29-14 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 11:02 | 11:41 |
| Height | 5'10" | 5'8" |
| Weight (pounds) | 145 lbs. | 145 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 70" | 70" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 12/8/1988 | 11/2/1983 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 7.36 | 4.67 |
| SS Accuracy | 56% | 50% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 5.67 | 3.86 |
| SS Defense | 43% | 59% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.24 | 1.04 |
| TD Acc | 23% | 50% |
| TD Def | 61% | 63% |
| Submission Avg | 1.1 | 0.4 |
Cub Swanson has been a professional MMA fighter for more than 20 years, and is still competing at the sport's highest level at age 41. That's an impressive feat for anyone, but particularly at the lighter weight classes.
The most important attributes for smaller fighters include things like speed and reaction time that tend to fall off with age, which is what makes Swanson's longevity especially noteworthy.
He's continued to adapt his game to account for his decline in those areas. The younger Swanson would happily stand in the pocket with his hands down, narrowly avoiding strikes from his opponent. He's noticeably slower now, and has adapted his striking to a more range based approach.
Swanson still fights with his hands down, but uses excellent shoulder rolls, slips, and deflections to avoid getting hit clean. His two knockout losses in the past 15 years have been via leg and body strikes, meaning his chin has never been truly tested.
Offensively, rather than flurry with wild combos he looks to set up one or two shots at a time. His unorthodox hand placement and feints often confuse opponents, giving him the chance to land heavy shots. They also tend to put Swanson off balance, allowing grapplers to land takedowns and leaving him open to leg kicks.
To his credit, once taken down Swanson has arguably the best "get up" game of any fighter on the roster. Don't expect Quarantillo to find much success from top control here.
Quarantillo's striking is far more volume based. He's accurate offensively, but at that cost of leaving himself in position to be countered. He tends to have success against opponents who don't have the power to punish him for his "take one to give one" approach, while struggling against those who can hurt him with single shots.
He tends to wear down opponents over time to find finishes, rather than shut the lights out with big punches of his own. He's also not much of a leg kicker — though he works the body well. Those two factors limit his options against Swanson, who should land the bigger shots of the pair.
Quarantillo vs. Swanson Pick, Prediction
There's always a risk involved betting on older fighters. Sure, they may have looked good in their last fight — but the cliff could come at any moment.
Still, given the odds, it's hard for me to fade Swanson here. He's coming off a split decision loss that probably should've gone his way, and his combination of strong striking defense and counter punching is a challenging set up for Quarantillo.
However, I'm going to hedge my prediction a bit by option with Swanson's +3.5 point spread line at -140 on DraftKings. It's not a huge difference from his +130 moneyline, but gives us way more outs.
If Swanson can win a single round and survive to the end, he covers the line. He's the better submission grappler, and I don't see Quarantillo landing enough volume to finish Swanson with strikes.
Swanson's heavy shots should steal him at least one round, making this a relatively safe pick if he hasn't hit an age wall since his last appearance in June
Billy's Picks: Cub Swanson +3.5 -140 (DraftKings) good to -160
