Mackenzie Dern vs. Amanda Ribas Pick, Prediction, Odds for UFC Vegas 101 on Saturday, January 11

Check out the Mackenzie Dern vs. Amanda Ribas pick for UFC Vegas 101 on Saturday, January 11, with my betting preview and breakdown.

Mackenzie Dern vs. Amanda Ribas Odds

On Saturday, the UFC returns to the APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada, for a 14-fight card featuring a rematch in the main event between No. 5 strawweight contender Amanda Ribas and No. 6 ranked Mackenzie Dern.

Ribas won a unanimous 30-27 decision in their first encounter in 2019. In the three-round bout, Dern closed as a -185 favorite.

Ribas is 5-1 in the UFC's strawweight division and enters her second consecutive fight round fight after proving her championship cardio at flyweight against Rose Namajunas. However, she has been 5-4 in the UFC since her win over Dern, who is 7-4 since losing to Ribas and entering her fourth career five-round fight.

Here's my Dern vs. Ribas pick and prediction.

Tale of the Tape

While Ribas closed as the underdog in the initial matchup, she dominated the fight, out-landing Dern 72-19 at distance, including a 34-7 margin in round three.

Ribas denied all six of Dern's takedown attempts – quickly scrambling back to her feet after each one – while landing a couple of hip throws of her own. Ribas seemingly dictated where the fight took place, either controlling Dern from guard or, more regularly, standing up and inviting Dern to follow her back to a kickboxing match.

Ribas indicated before the fight that she expected a striking matchup – and, despite her jiu-jitsu pedigree – had little interest in rolling with Dern on the mat.

Instead, Ribas exhibited superior technical striking, fighting behind her jab and longer straight punches (3" reach advantage) while mixing combos to the head and body. And she routinely used her inside low kick to knock Dern off balance.

Moreover, Ribas showed superior striking defense (61% vs. 51% career) with better footwork and head movement, which has led to a career +2.0 significant strike differential per minute at distance, compared to a -1.5 deficit for Dern.

When Ribas is comfortable, she can become reckless in her fights. Dern didn't land many punches, but her shots were hard and clean when she did connect. Both women left themselves open to damage in Round 2, but Ribas continually got the better of the counters, and her lengthy jab proved too tricky for Dern to navigate.

Ribas upped her pace further by the ten-minute mark – firing her signature spinning wheel kick – before pouring on the volume against a wilting Dern in Round 3.  She entered a flow state – landing a head kick and various three-punch combinations before finally letting Dern eat some ground and pound on the bottom after another takedown denial.

Ribas continued to let loose until the final bell, amplifying her pressure and volume until the closing seconds. She could have finished Dern if she had maintained that pace into a fourth and fifth round.

While Dern has potentially closed the striking gap between the pair since the first fight, I doubt she has done enough to steal more than a close, competitive round or two.

As a result, Dern needs to successfully grapple to win this fight, but she had no success getting Ribas to the mat in the first matchup. Dern has always been a subpar wrestler (11 of 65 on career takedown attempts, 17% accuracy), and Ribas — a dual black belt in Jiu-Jitsu and Judo — was much quicker and more fluid in the scrambles between the pair.

Dern got particularly deep, but Ribas quickly denied the position, scrambled back to her feet, and attempted the hip throw again. Dern nearly got the better of that subsequent scramble and control position; Ribas loves to use that takedown technique, but it could ultimately put her in a vulnerable position.

Regardless, I'm not confident that Dern will have sustained grappling success or show vastly improved striking to close a substantial gap between the pair.

I'd live bet Ribas if she falls behind early; she may start slow in a five-round fight, but I'd expect her to rally — and increase her pace and pressure — the longer the fight goes.

Additionally, Ribas could finish the fight in the championship rounds at long odds (+3200 for Round 4, +4000 for Round 5) if she implements a similar game plan as the first fight and increases her intensity late against a tiring opponent.

Dern vs. Ribas Pick, Prediction

I projected Amanda Ribas as a 69.4% favorite (-227 implied odds) and would bet her moneyline to about -215 (68.3% implied), at a 1.1% edge compared to my projected line.

Moreover, I expect the fight to go to a decision 72% of the time (-256 implied odds), more often than the betting market at -195 (66.1% implied). However, most of that equity is tied to Dern by decision (projected +403, listed +480); the lone way I would bet the underdog.

That said, if Ribas increases her intensity in the championship rounds, as she has shown a tendency to do in the final round of her matchups, her odds of winning in Round 4 (+3200) or Round 5 (+4000) would be highly appealing.

I might even prefer Ribas by KO/TKO in Round 4 (+5000) and by KO/TKO in Round 5 (+6000) at longer odds; Ribas had zero interest in grappling with Dern in the first fight — and might default to hammerfists over a choke in a potential club and sub scenario.

Sean's Picks: Amanda Ribas (-190 at Caesars)