Movsar Evloev vs. Hakeem Dawodu Odds
This is a high-level undercard matchup between No. 14 Featherweight contender Movsar Evloev and No. 15 Hakeem Dawodu, one of whom could challenge the 145-pound title within the next few years.
Evloev is one of my favorite prospects in the UFC, and I'm curious to see his career trajectory since he's likely a better fit at 135 — which is a much more loaded division at present.
Below I preview the matchup and odds for Saturday's fight. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate.
Tale of the Tape
| Evloev | Dawodu | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 14-0 | 12-1-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 15:00 | 12:28 |
| Height | 5'7" | 5'8" |
| Weight (pounds) | 145 lbs. | 145 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 72" | 72" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 2/11/94 | 7/2/91 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.70 | 5.15 |
| SS Accuracy | 44% | 47% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.83 | 2.31 |
| SS Defense | 64% | 63% |
| Take Down Avg. | 2.75 | 0.00 |
| TD Acc | 37% | 0% |
| TD Def | 70% | 85% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Evloev is a bit undersized for 145, but he's very crafty and quickly caught my eye after defending the M-1 title multiple times with his smooth, versatile style.
He's not the best wrestler, but he mixes in takedowns effectively with his striking and fights behind a good jab and solid footwork.
Dawodu has shown strong takedown defense, and I expect that we largely get a striking battle between these two, with Dawodu landing the heavier shots and Evloev sticking and moving his way around the cage.
Evloev doesn't necessarily need to land takedowns to control the pace — he's effective in the clinch despite being undersized at 145 and possesses a high-level fight IQ.
Dawodu certainly has the tools to win this fight. However, Evloev is just a more well-rounded fighter and has more ways to win minutes inside the cage.
His timing and movement could serve to frustrate Dawodu for the duration. Still, Evloev also seems to do just enough to secure most rounds, and I wouldn't be surprised if it's a tight 1-1 going into Round 3.
Evloev vs. Dawodu Pick
Given his point-fighting nature, it's difficult to justify Evloev as a significant favorite every time out (closed at least -200 in each UFC fight). He won as a -723 favorite in his last fight against Nik Lentz, but only by a split decision — that shouldn't happen.
And Dawodu has the tools to keep this fight close.
I wouldn't use Evloev as a parlay piece, but I show value on his decision prop (projected -122, listed -106) up to -110.
Furthermore, I show value on either the over or the fight to go the distance prop (projected -374, listed -244), and I would use those as a parlay piece up to -300.
The Pick: Movsar Evloev wins by Decision (-106, 0.5 units) | Use Over 2.5 (-264) as a Parlay Piece
