Peyton Talbott (9-0) faces Raoni Barcelos (18-5) on the UFC 311 prelims on Saturday night from the Intuit Dome in Inglewood, Calif.
Talbott is one of the UFC's best prospects and has won via finish in his first three UFC fights. Barcelos will be making his 12th UFC appearance but has lost four of his last six fights.
Let's get into my Talbott vs. Barcelos prediction and preview in the bantamweight division tonight.
Payton Talbott vs. Raoni Barcelos Odds, Prediction
| Bantamweight Bout | Odds |
|---|---|
| Payton Talbott Odds | -1200 |
| Raoni Barcelos Odds | +750 |
| Over/under rounds | 1.5 (-166 / +130) |
Odds via DraftKings as of Saturday afternoon.
Crowdsourced Projections: Payton Talbott (87.8%)
Talbott has potentially overtaken Bo Nickal as the most exciting prospect in the UFC. The undefeated 26-year-old striker has drawn comparison to Sean O'Malley with his size for 135 pounds, fluid technique and outrageous output. He lands 8.4 significant strikes per minute, including his contender series bout.
Talbott's moneyline will close north of -1000 for the second consecutive fight, but Raoni Barcelos is far more decorated than recent opponent Yanis Ghemmouri, who Talbott dispatched in 19 seconds.
Barcelos is a highly well-rounded fighter, including Brazilian national wrestling and Nogi grappling titles, but he's 37 years old and at a severe size (3-inch discrepancy in height and reach) and speed disadvantage in this matchup.
If Barcelos can get the fight to the ground, he could potentially test Talbott's submission defense, but that's the only way I see the Brazilian pulling off a significant upset.
As I regularly cite, when there is at least a decade in age between MMA opponents, the younger fighters have won 72.3% of the time at average odds of -140 (58.5% implied), nearly 14% above expectation.
Talbott vs. Barcelos Prediction
If there's any value on this fight, it's on Talbott to win by decision (projected +267, listed +320) or the fight to go to decision (projected +210, listed +240). Still, given the age discrepancy and Talbott's potential to perform as a statistical outlier, I'm happy to pass.
