Ryan Spann vs. Ion Cutelaba Odds
| Spann Odds | +185 |
| Cutelaba Odds | -225 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (+120 / -165) |
| Venue | UFC APEX |
| Time | Approx. 11:30 p.m. ET |
| Channel | ESPN 2 |
| Odds as of Friday and via BetMGM. | |
Two aggressive finishers meet in the co-main event on Saturday. Ryan Spann and Ion Cutelaba have both been up and down in their UFC careers, but the winner could move into title contention with an impressive performance.
This one promises a ton of action, with -400 odds to end inside the distance. Will Ryan "Superman" Spann be able to take out Ion "The Hulk" Cutelaba?
Below, you'll find a full breakdown of this one, with suggested pre-fight and live betting opportunities.
Tale of the Tape
| Spann | Cutelaba | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 19-7 | 16-6-1 (1 NC) |
| Avg. Fight Time | 5:17 | 8:23 |
| Height | 6'5" | 6'1" |
| Weight (pounds) | 205 lbs. | 205 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 79" | 75" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 8/24/91 | 12/14/93 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.43 | 4.91 |
| SS Accuracy | 44% | 42% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.54 | 3.43 |
| SS Defense | 47% | 47% |
| Take Down Avg. | 1.58 | 4.39 |
| TD Acc | 38% | 60% |
| TD Def | 60% | 79% |
| Submission Avg | 1.6 | 0.0 |
Cutelaba is 5-5-1 in his UFC career, with one of the toughest strengths of schedules of any light heavyweight. He's fought Magomed Ankalaev twice and current champion Glover Teixeira once, with another loss to middleweight title contender Jared Cannonier.
He's finished three of those five wins, all in the first round by knockout. He looks to be the better striker in this fight, with a higher activity rate and fewer shots absorbed than Spann.
He's had a questionable chin, though, getting knocked out in the first round by Ankalaev in both of their fights — though one was a fairly early stoppage that resulted in the immediate rematch. That's dangerous against Spann, whose knockdown rate is more than three times the UFC average. Spann should have a significant power edge in this one.
Spann also has a dangerous guillotine choke, which he could employ if Cutelaba shoots in for a takedown. Guillotines are a relatively low-percentage submission — and I'd rather see fighters defend the takedown than go for them — but Spann still could land it.
Cutelaba has the grappling advantage otherwise, as Spann rarely looks to take fights to the mat. I don't see that changing against Cutelaba, who lacks more than six inches in reach compared to Spann.
The other edge I see for Cutelaba is in his cardio. Spann swings so aggressively with his strikes, it's much harder to keep up that pace throughout 15 minutes. Cutelaba looked good in a 15-minute fight his last time out, while Spann has shown signs of fatigue in his rare fights that make it to the third round.
Spann vs. Cutelaba Pick
At +185 (35% implied odds) in a fight that's -450 at the lowest (81.82% implied) to go to a decision, we should be seeing Spann at about +250 (28.62%) to win this fight inside the distance.
That's assuming wins by stoppage make up an equal distribution of his win condition, as they do Cutelaba's.
However, you can find inside the distance odds on Spann as high as +400 on Caesars. That's a solid bet just based on math alone. Additionally, Spann seems to be the fighter for whom a stoppage makes up a greater percentage of his win condition.
He has huge power, is fighting an opponent with a questionable chin,and also has cardio concerns. Spann also has some submission upside, which is why I prefer the ITD line to his (T)KO prop.
Those cardio concerns have me interested in live betting opportunities on Cutelaba, though. If Spann hurts Cutelaba early, we could see Cutelaba's odds move to even or plus money after the first frame. I'll be looking to pounce on those, should they become available.
As always, be sure to shop around for live lines, as they tend to vary more widely than pre-fight markets.
The Pick: Ryan Spann ITD (+400) | Cutelaba live after R1 at even money or better.
