Check out the Shavkat Rakhmonov vs. Ian Garry odds for UFC 310 on Saturday, Dec. 7, with my betting preview and breakdown.
Shavkat Rakhmonov vs. Ian Garry Odds
| Rakhmonov Odds | -355 |
| Garry Odds | +280 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-180 / +140) |
| Location | T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas |
| Bout Time | 11:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC 310 odds as of Thursday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 310 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
UFC 310 was originally set to feature a welterweight title fight between Shavkat Rakhmonov and Belal Muhammad, with Muhammad defending his crown. The champion was forced out due to a gruesome toe infection, leaving Rakhmonov without a dance partner.
In his place, the undefeated welterweight Ian Garry, who was originally scheduled to headline next week's UFC Tampa card. Now we have a rare matchup between two undefeated fighters as the UFC 310 co-main event.
While this isn't officially an interim title fight, the winner will almost secure the next shot at the championship. This could mean the originally scheduled Rakhmonov — or Garry could throw a wrench in those plans.
Here's my Rakhmonov vs. Garry pick and prediction.
Billy Ward's Tale of the Tape
| Rakhmonov | Garry | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 18-0 | 15-0 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 8:22 | 12:10 |
| Height | 6'1" | 6'3" |
| Weight (pounds) | 170 lbs. | 170 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 77" | 74" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 10/23/1994 | 11/17/1997 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.12 | 5.50 |
| SS Accuracy | 61% | 55% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.41 | 3.17 |
| SS Defense | 51% | 52% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.49 | 0.77 |
| TD Acc | 29% | 55% |
| TD Def | 100% | 69% |
| Submission Avg | 1.8 | 0.3 |
The co-main event fighters are a combined 14-0 in the UFC, with eight of those wins belonging to Garry and six to Rakhmonov. Rakhmonov was initially booked for the title fight due to how he got those wins, despite being a couple of fights behind Garry.
Both men's last three fights in the UFC have gone Neil Magny, Geoff Neal, and "past his prime Karate fighter" with Rakhmonov dispatching Stephen Thompson and Garry taking out Michael "Venum" Page.
However, Rakhmonov submitted all three of those opponents, while Garry needed three decisions, including a controversial split decision over Neal.
While there's no transitive property in MMA, that gives us a pretty big sample size of Rakhmonov performing better against similar opponents. Neal was the only opponent to even momentarily threaten Rakhmonov, who has finished all 18 of his professional fights.
It's hard to find any flaws in Rakhmonov's game, as he's dominated in both grappling and striking exchanges throughout his career. The only thing that stands out on tape is that his extremely upright stance and untucked chin could make him vulnerable to being hurt while on his feet.
I say "could" and not "does" because Rakhmonov's length makes him extremely hard to hit. He manages range extremely well, and if opponents push in too close, Rakhmonov pulls them into a clinch.
That length and range management is a trait shared by Garry who, at 6'3", is the taller man in this matchup. However, Rakhmonov has an extra three inches in reach, which limits Garry's ability to fight at his preferred distance.
In previous matchups against longer opponents (Magny and Page), Garry was able to win the fights through his grappling. The Judo black belt is also dangerous in the clinch, with clinch grappling potentially deciding this fight.
With that said, it's hard to see Garry being the first man to take Rakhmonov down. Grappling typically isn't Plan A for the Irish, and his best takedowns are from the clinch where Rakhmonov is especially dangerous.
All of which explains how we got to the wide odds in this matchup, with Rakhmonov as a heavy favorite.
Rakhmonov vs. Garry Pick, Prediction
I came into this one thinking more about how I was going to bet on Rakhmonov, rather than which side I'd be taking. It's very hard to see a clear path forward for Garry here.
The one exception might be later in the fight. It's the first five-round fight for either man, but Rakhmonov's size and more aggressive style probably make him the underdog in terms of cardio here.
For that reason, I'll be looking for opportunities to bet live on Garry later into this one.
However, from a prefight standpoint, I was happy to see the price on Rakhmonov by knockout. Sure, five of his six UFC wins have been submissions, but throughout his career eight of his 18 wins have been knockouts.
Garry has been dropped before in the UFC but has never faced an official submission attempt. I have more faith in Garry's grappling defense being able to hold up here than on his chin, so my official prefight pick is Rakhmonov by knockout, with the best line of +280 at FanDuel.
