Cynthia Calvillo vs. Lupita Godinez Odds
After a rough stretch at flyweight, Cynthia Calvillo is returning to the 115-pound division looking for a career turnaround.
But she's facing a unique test with Lupita Godinez. The Canadian-based Mexican fighter is 3-3 in the UFC and has struggled against the strawweight division's elite fighters.
Who has the edge on Saturday? Let's dig into this bout from the UFC 287 preliminary card.
Tale of the Tape
| Calvillo | Godinez | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 9-5-1 | 8-3 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:39 | 13:12 |
| Height | 5'4" | 5'2" |
| Weight (pounds) | 125 lbs. | 115 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 64" | 61" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 7/13/1987 | 9/6/1993 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.16 | 2.97 |
| SS Accuracy | 39% | 48% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.95 | 2.47 |
| SS Defense | 65% | 59% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.88 | 4.54 |
| TD Acc | 44% | 45% |
| TD Def | 75% | 81% |
| Submission Avg | 0.9 | 0.8 |
Calvillo is the taller and longer fighter (a two-inch advantage in both height and reach), but she could face a significant speed discrepancy here to neutralize those advantages. She's dropping back down from flyweight to strawweight at age 35, with a 1-4-1 record in her past six fights.
Cailvillo used to be a serious player in the 115-pound division but struggled to make weight and was forced to move up, which did not go well. In theory, moving back down and getting to grapple smaller opponents should be to her advantage. However, you typically don't see older fighters at the smaller weight classes moving down in weight at this stage of their careers.
It seems like a choice made out of desperation since things were going so poorly at 125.
"Loopy" Godinez is the superior boxer, and her hand speed in the pocket should prove detrimental for Calvillo, who is an underwhelming technical and defensive striker.
Calvillo has the size advantage and potentially the wrestling advantage too, but Godinez should be quicker in the scrambles, and I don't expect Calvillo to be able to hold her down for long, if at all.
Calvillo's last win came more than three years ago against Jessica Eye, who missed weight and exited the UFC with three additional losses after that bout. She is older now than Eye was then.
Calvillo vs. Godinez Pick
Saturday's matchup between Calvillo and Godinez seems like a true crossroads fight.
Godinez can take some of Calvillo's shine in what likely amounts to a "win or pink slip" opportunity for the UFC veteran.
I don't project an edge on this fight from any betting angle; however, I plan to use Godinez in DFS. Calvillo quit on the stool after two rounds against Andree Lee and seems relatively disinterested in fighting through adversity at this stage of her career.
The Pick: Pass
