Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier Odds
| 11:59 p.m. ET | |
Here's everything you need to know about the Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier odds for UFC 302 on Saturday, June 1.
On Saturday the UFC will return to Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey, for a lightweight title bout between current champion Islam Makhachev and former interim champion and two-time title challenger Dustin Poirier.
Makhachev will look for his third title defense – and 14th consecutive UFC win – on Saturday after defeating Alexander Volkanovski via head-kick TKO at UFC 294 in October. Makhachev, who gained a reputation as a point fighter early in his career, has finished five of his past six wins.
Poirier is just 2-2 in his past four bouts, including a title fight loss to Charles Oliveira and a BMF defeat to Justin Gaethje. However, he earned a third chance at undisputed gold after a knockout win against Benoit Saint Denis. Poirier previously lost to Makhachev's teammate Khabib Nurmagomedov at UFC 242 after securing the interim belt against Max Holloway at UFC 236.
Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC 302 main event and utilize those factors to bet on Poirier vs. Makhachev, who should make their cage walks at approximately 11:55 p.m. ET (8:55 p.m. PT) on ESPN+ PPV.
Here's my Makhachev vs. Poirier prediction and pick.
Tale of the Tape
| Makhachev | Poirier | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 25-1 | 30-8 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 9:46 | 9:53 |
| Height | 5'10" | 5'9" |
| Weight (pounds) | 155 lbs. | 155 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 70" | 72" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 10/27/1991 | 1/19/1989 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 2.5 | 5.5 |
| SS Accuracy | 60% | 51% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 1.3 | 4.4 |
| SS Defense | 61% | 53% |
| Take Down Avg | 3.17 | 1.33 |
| TD Acc | 60% | 36% |
| TD Def | 90% | 63% |
| Submission Avg | 1.0 | 1.4 |
History is against Dustin Poirier on Saturday; UFC fighters at 155 pounds or below are 0-15 in title bouts (2-23 at 170 pounds and lighter), and Makhachev presents a problematic stylistic matchup.
It's a similar stylistic matchup to Poirier's last fight against Saint Denis, in which the Frenchman took him down three times and controlled him for 4:53 of the total 7:32 fight time before Poirier landed a knockout blow. Saint Denis' aggressive style should lead to him gassing out as his fights extend.
Still, he was also dealing with a staph infection going into that fight, which likely limited both his effectiveness and his endurance.
Poirier didn't look great at any point during that contest. His athleticism is clearly declining following that knockout loss to Gaethje, which looked career-altering at the time.
I'd still give Poirier a puncher's chance against Makhachev, who is more measured than Saint Denis but less risk-averse and durable than Khabib; Makhachev was knocked out cold in his second UFC fight against Adriano Martins.
Makhachev has shown a willingness to strike against dangerous fighters. His offensive striking is underrated – he seemingly overperformed on the feet in his first fight against Volkanovski but backed it up with the subsequent knockout. He's sound defensively (60% striking defense; 51% vs. Volkanovski), but engaging on the feet in this matchup provides Poirier with a legitimate chance at victory.
Instead, Makhachev should be able to take down Poirier (career 63% takedown defense) at will (3.17 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, 60% accuracy for Makhachev). Poirier also loves to jump the guillotine when opponents look to change levels, consistently putting him on his back. Moreover, Poirier isn't typically as adept at scrambling out from the bottom as he showed in the BSD fight. And when he does, he often gives up his back – a mistake Makhachev will capitalize upon.
Unlike Nurmagomedov, Makhachev is willing to prioritize attacking submissions over consolidating position, particularly in recent fights. There's a distinct possibility that he will get to a dominant position in the first round and cut right through Poirier on the mat.
In a striking battle, Poirier likely has the superior gas tank, but he will use a lot of energy scrambling out from underneath Makhachev, who is big for the 155-pound division. And I'd still favor Makhachev as the likelier minute winner in an extended bout. His cardio has previously held up in the championship rounds against Volkanovski and Thiago Moises, and the takedowns should come easier in this fight to break up Poirier's offensive pressure.
It's worth noting, however, that Makhachev is potentially dealing with a staph infection in the lead-up to this fight. Keep a close eye on his left leg below the knee.
Makhachev vs. Poirier Pick
Dustin Poirier is a popular underdog selection this week; resources I use to create my projections had bettors and fans selecting Poirier about 34% of the time.
I ultimately projected Islam Makhachev as a -655 favorite (86.8% implied) in this matchup, and I would use him as a parlay piece up to around -625.
I expect the fight to end inside the distance around 84% of the time (-538 implied) and would consider parlaying the fight to end inside the distance (-500 at Caesars).
However, I'd prefer to bet Makhachev by submission (projected -129, listed +100) in the winning-method market. Poirier has two career losses by submission, including a pair of rear-naked chokes against Khabib and Oliveira. He's likelier to roll over and give his back to try to escape mount rather than accept ground and pound.
I'd expect Makhachev to find the back and work for that RNC against Poirier or find an arm triangle from half-guard as he did against Oliveira and Drew Dober.
The Pick: Islam Makhachev by Submission (+100 at bet365 or Hard Rock)
