UFC 304 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Muhammad Mokaev vs. Manel Kape: The Bet for Flyweight Title Eliminator (Saturday, July 27)

Muhammad Mokaev vs. Manel Kape Odds

Check out the latest Muhammad Mokaev vs. Manel Kape odds for UFC 304 on Saturday, July 27, with our expert pick and prediction.

Perhaps the most important non-title fight on the UFC 304 card is the clash between flyweight contenders Manel Kape and Muhammad Mokaev. The fight has been suspiciously moved to the prelims, but the winner will likely get the next crack at the UFC 125-pound belt.

The 23-year-old Mokaev is a perfect 6-0 in the UFC with four finishes while Kape is riding a four-fight winning streak of his own.

One of those streaks has to end in Manchester, and the winner is perfectly positioned for a late-2024 title run.

Tale of the Tape

The Dagestan-born, England-raised Muhammad Mokaev came into the UFC and announced his goal to be the youngest-ever UFC champion. He's officially fallen just short of that goal, but he wouldn't be far off if he can keep his upward trajectory.

Mokaev started wrestling as a youth in Dagestan – as one would expect – but really hit his stride after moving to the U.K. He was a four-time youth national champion in Britain before transitioning to submission grappling and eventually MMA.

As one would expect from that origin story, Mokaev is all about the grappling. Just one of his 11 professional wins was via knockout, and he lands fewer than two significant strikes per minute. That latter stat is especially concerning due to the large amount of control time he racks up.

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The biggest knock on Mokaev's grappling is his lack of damage from top position, where he instead prioritizes submission attempts. That often lands him in positions where he needs a finish to avoid losing rounds, though to his credit he typically finds one.

On the feet, Mokaev uses plenty of level changes and feinted takedowns to disrupt his opponent's timing and rhythm. He's made some strides with his boxing, but plans A through Y are still to get the fight to the mat.

Of course, it's worth including the qualifier "yet" when discussing any of Mokaev's weaknesses. While he has an extensive amateur MMA career dating back to 2015, he was still primarily a wrestler/grappler until about five years ago. Plus, at his age there's still probably some untapped athletic potential as well.

The same can't be said of Kape, who's squarely in the prime of his career at age 30. The former Rizin bantamweight champion has a dozen years of pro MMA experience, and he made his UFC debut in 2021. After losing his first two octagon appearances – one against future champion Alexandre Pantoja, the other a borderline robbery of a split decision – he's racked up four straight wins.

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Notably, four of his six UFC fights came in the calendar year 2021. Since then he's had seven cancellations and two fights, thanks to weight misses, injuries and a positive PED test from Kape.

The weight misses (and PED test) aren't incredibly surprising, given how massive Kape is for flyweight. He seems to be on borrowed time in the division, and one of the potential reasons to bump this fight from the main card is uncertainty about Kape being able to make the weight.

However, that size and strength have translated into massive power. His four-fight winning streak saw him score five knockdowns, an absurd number for the UFC's lightest male weight class.

It will be interesting to see how his power plays against Mokaev. Kape is a far better counterpuncher than aggressor, but Mokaev doesn't provide much to counter. "Starboy" does use knees and uppercuts well, which could deter takedown attempts Mokaev. This one might come down to which fighter is willing to be more patient on the feet.

Kape's grappling is also solid, and he's mixed in takedowns offensively on occasion. I'd rate his grappling higher than Mokaev's striking, but give both fighters pretty big edges in their preferred domain.

Mokaev vs. Kape Pick

Money has poured in on Mokaev since this fight was announced, moving him from a +120 underdog at open to a moderate favorite as of Thursday. Coupled with the suspicious move down the card, I'm concerned about there being a potential injury or weight issue with Kape that's moving markets.

Even if that's not the case, I'm siding with the grappler in what is at its core a striker vs. grappler matchup. Besides the wrestling edge, Mokaev will have the home crowd in his favor, and he should have a cardio edge against the bigger man.

Plus, Mokaev has shown a steady upward trajectory across his UFC fights, finding ways to beat tough veterans Alex Perez and Tim Elliot in his recent fights. None of Kape's UFC wins is against opponents with winning records in the promotion while plenty of Mokaev's wins have aged very well.

I'm laying the -155 juice on Mokaev here; the +130 decision line isn't quite wide enough for me to take the risk. If his moneyline gets to -170 or so, though, consider a pivot.

The Pick: Muhammad Mokaev (-155 at DraftKings)

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