Check out our UFC 305 best bets for Saturday's pay-per-view event, which features a Dricus Du Plessis vs. Israel Adesanya main event.
UFC 305 takes place at RAC Arena in Perth, Australia. Following prelims on ESPN+ (6:30 p.m. ET) and then ESPN (8 p.m. ET), the five-fight UFC 305 main card kicks off on ESPN+ PPV at 10 p.m. ET.
This overseas fight card features 12 bouts in all with a number of fighters from the Australasia region.
So where should you look to place your bets? Our crew has pinpointed four fights and picks on Saturday’s card that present plenty of betting value.
You can find their analysis and picks on those matches plus Sean Zerillo's projections below using odds from DraftKings.
UFC 305 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 305 with our DraftKings promo code.
Moneyline Projections
Prop Projections
UFC 305 Best Bets & Expert Picks
Billy Ward: Stewart Nicoll vs. Jesus Santos Aguilar
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 6:25 p.m. ET
We have a rare occurrence in the first prelim fight at UFC 305: A fighter making his debut without coming through the Contender Series, The Ultimate Fighter or taking the fight as a last-minute replacement.
That’s a good sign about what UFC officials think they have in Stewart Nicoll. The Solomon Islands-born fighter has a fascinating backstory that includes fleeing islands by canoe in the dead of night, as well as a perfect 8-0 record with seven finishes.
Primarily a grappler, Nicoll finished his first three fights by submission and his past four via ground and pound. Nicoll mentioned those results being an intentional choice; he realized that going for low-probability subs against tougher competition isn’t a viable long-term plan.
Nicoll (-205) knows that, but it's a realization that Jesus Santos Aguilar (+170) doesn’t seem to have had. His Plan A remains trying to jump guillotine. The 10-2 flyweight has four wins with the submission, and he's attempted it in UFC fights against Tatsuro Taira and Mateus Mendonca.
This matchup is stylistically similar to the one against Taira, in which Aguilar found himself in a bad position when the guillotine inevitably failed. Nicoll is a second-degree Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt who looks to do damage from dominant positions – not somebody I’d willingly give top position to.
Rather than play Nicoll’s -230 or so moneyline, I’m betting him to pick up yet another finish in this fight. He could continue his string of ground-and-pound victories or go back to his roots and pick up a submission. We’re getting both included in this +200 pick.
The Pick: Stewart Nicoll by finish (+200 at FanDuel)
Sean Zerillo: Song Kenan vs. Ricky Glenn
Senior Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 6:55 p.m. ET
Given the limited number of Chinese martial artists in the promotion, I'd assume the UFC views Song Kenan as the A-side of this UFC 305 prelim.
He's a natural welterweight and prospect gatekeeper, and his name is recognizable among the UFC fanbase due to three knockout wins and a near finish of Ian Machado Garry at UFC 285.
On Saturday Kenan (-218) takes on Ricky Glenn (+180), a natural featherweight (27 of 32 fights at 145 pounds) who has suffered consecutive knockout losses at lightweight (155) and will now move up to welterweight (170) to take on a power puncher.
Glenn should be the quicker man, but Song hits significantly harder and should have ample opportunities to finish a potentially chinny opponent or deal substantial damage to him over 15 minutes.
Glenn is the better kicker – and potentially has offensive grappling upside – so I wouldn't invest too heavily in Song's moneyline. Song will land the more damaging head strikes, but any decision would likely be sweaty.
Instead of the moneyline, I show value on Song's knockout prop (projected +125, listed +145), odds to win inside the distance (projected -106, listed +110), and finish only moneyline (projected -345, listed -275). Notably, though, Song's knockout prop is -110 (52.4% implied) at offshore books – more than a 10% reduction compared to domestic odds at +145 (40.8% implied).
The Pick: Song Kenan wins by KO/TKO (+145 at Bally Bet)
Dann Stupp: Casey O'Neill vs. Luana Santos
Senior Editor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:25 p.m. ET
For my UFC 305 best bet, I'm going to dip into a betting market that even seasoned bettors don't always fully understand: the MMA point spread.
Betting with a point spread introduces an interesting wrinkle to the MMA handicapping process. But in the case of Casey O'Neill (+120) vs. Luana Santos (-142), it also provides me with one of my favorite betting scenarios: the ability to win my bet even if my analysis proves a bit faulty.
As I wrote in my O'Neill vs. Santos preview, I think O'Neill's stock is far too low due to her recent skid and injury recovery. And I think Santos' stock is a little inflated due to a winning streak that's come against largely unproven talent.
I like O'Neill on the moneyline at +128 odds (BetRivers), and I think there's value with any plus number next to her name. But let's get a little more strategic and take O'Neill +3.5 points on the point spread at -180 odds. The bet is available at DraftKings, one of the few sportsbooks that offer MMA point spreads.
How does an MMA point spread work? It's actually pretty easy and requires nothing more than simple math.
First things first: If O'Neill wins inside the distance, the bet is an automatic winner, and we don't even need to worry about the scorecards.
However, let's say the fight does go to a decision, and O'Neill wins 29-28, 29-28, 29-28 on the scorecards. First, we add up O'Neill's scores (29+29+29 = 87) and then we add up Santos' scores (28+28+28 = 84).
O'Neill wins overall 87-84. But if you add in her point spread (+3.5), the victory is even more commanding: 90.5 to 84.
But conversely, even if O'Neill loses two of three rounds (84-87), our bet still cashes because the final score would be 87.5 to 87 in her favor with the spread.
So, yeah, O'Neill essentially needs to win just one round for our bet to cash. And I think that's more than likely given the fighter's disparity in experience against top-level opposition, O'Neill's physical advantages (reach and cardio, especially), her better overall MMA game, and judging that could favor the local product in close rounds.
The Pick: Casey O'Neill +3.5 point spread (-180 at DraftKings)
Tony Sartori: Dricus Du Plessis vs. Israel Adesanya
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 11:55 p.m. ET
Saturday's UFC 305 main event features reigning titleholder Dricus Du Plessis (-108) defending the middleweight championship against Israel Adesanya (-112). MMA math suggests that the value is on the champion, given that he is younger and just defeated Sean Strickland, who acquired said title by beating Adesdanya.
However, I am optimistic that we will see the betting favorite reclaim his throne.
I want to get one thing out of the way before describing my philosophy for this fight: Backing Adesanya is in no way a fade of DDP. The current champion rightfully holds the belt and is an incredible mixed martial artist who can handle himself in any situation, and I won't be shocked at all if he defends the strap this weekend.
With that said, I am a believer in that Adesanya is still in his prime, the second-best middleweight of all time behind Anderson Silva. Adesanya was a -650 favorite against Strickland, so what went wrong?
It's simple: Adesanya got caught in the first round and was never the same for the rest of the fight. That one moment is what basically explains the utter domination from Strickland from there on out, and I don't think that Adesanya is the fighter we saw that night.
Instead, I believe he is still the Adesanya who was 13-1 in the UFC middleweight division prior to losing that bout. If he is indeed still that guy, then there is an enormous amount of value to be had in his "win by decision" prop at +240 odds.
Prime Adesanya works the outside, picks his shots and racks up points to reach decision victories. That is how he defended the belt against the likes of Jared Cannonier, Robert Whittaker, Marvin Vettori, Yoel Romero, Kelvin Gastelum and Silva.
He's a special talent who can utilize his three-inch height and four-inch reach advantage to replicate such performances against DDP at UFC 305. There's no denying that Adesanya is the superior technician on the feet, and this path to victory is far more likely than the +240 odds suggest.
The Pick: Israel Adesanya by decision (+230 at FanDuel)
