Mateusz Gamrot vs. Dan Hooker Odds
| Gamrot Odds | -410 |
| Hooker Odds | +320 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-245 / +185) |
| Location | RAC Arena – Perth, Australia |
| Time | 11 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ PPV |
| UFC 305 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 305 with our DraftKings promo code! | |
Check out the Mateusz Gamrot vs. Dan Hooker odds with my UFC 305 pick and prediction for Saturday, August 17.
This is an interesting bit of matchmaking from the UFC, pitting hometown favorite Hooker in a matchup where he's a heavy underdog against a top-five fighter in Gamrot.
Hooker is 3-4 across his past seven fights with all of his losses coming against fighters ranked No. 6 or higher. At 34, that's a pretty solid indication he's unlikely to ever wear championship gold. However, he's still a tough test for all but the most elite fighters.
That could certainly describe Gamrot, who's 7-2 in the UFC with four wins against ranked opposition – though his split decision against top contender Arman Tsarukyan was highly questionable.
Will he cement his status in the title picture with a win over Hooker, or will the hometown hero pull off the upset?
Billy Ward's Tale of the Tape
| Gamrot | Hooker | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 24-2 | 23-12 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:00 | 9:59 |
| Height | 5'10" | 6'0" |
| Weight (pounds) | 156 lbs. | 155.5 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 70" | 75" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Switch |
| Date of birth | 12/11/1990 | 2/13/1990 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.09 | 5.08 |
| SS Accuracy | 51% | 48% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.07 | 4.76 |
| SS Defense | 59% | 51% |
| Take Down Avg | 5.28 | 0.79 |
| TD Acc | 35% | 34% |
| TD Def | 90% | 80% |
| Submission Avg | 0.1 | 0.4 |
Gamrot is best known as one of the elite grapplers in the sport. He wrestled at the international level as a youth before transitioning to no-gi grappling. There, he holds two ADCC gold medals plus a silver and a bronze.
As an MMA fighter, Gamrot's grappling pedigree is immediately apparent. He's landed at least four takedowns in every fight that's gone the distance for an average of more than 5.0 per 15 minutes. What's even more impressive is the opponents he's faced in those bouts. Gamrot was able to ground fellow grapplers Arman Tsaurkyan six times, Beneil Darisuh four times, and ex-champ Rafael dos Anjos 11 times.
No other fighter has taken down Dariush more than once, and nobody else besides Islam Makhachev has scored multiple takedowns against Tsarukyan either. Point is, nobody is going to beat Gamrot at his own game.
Whether he can execute that game safely against Hooker is the question. While Gamrot has solid striking defense by the numbers, he's also been dropped in four of his last five fights (and the one exception was against Rafael Fiziev, who suffered a leg injury early in the fight).
"Gamer" tends to lunge in a bit awkwardly when trying to initiate grappling against longer opponents (Turner) while getting caught transitioning between striking and grappling by more well-rounded mixed martial artists (Dariush, Tsaurkyan, RDA).
These are minor quibbles, but in a packed lightweight division, an extra split second on a transition can be the difference between a title and being unranked. To Gamrot's credit, he's never been finished, but one wonders how many more knockdowns he can take.
Especially against a fighter like Hooker, who has seven knockdowns in his 13 UFC wins. Hooker has revived his career after losing four of five with two straight wins, including a split decision against common opponent Turner (Gamrot also won via split).
A high-output brawler, "Hangman" has been in the UFC for more than a decade, and he has a penchant for scrappy performances. Hooker can mix the martial arts when needed, but he's at his best utilizing his City Kickboxing-trained striking.
Hooker holds an impressive 80% takedown defense rate in the UFC, and the last time he was taken down multiple times in a fight was in 2016. Outside of a submission loss to Islam Makhachev, he's largely been able to survive trips to the ground without taking much damage or giving up much control time.
Of course, Gamrot is a different animal than those opponents (excluding the champion), so it remains to be seen if Hooker can continue that trend.
Hooker's five-inch reach edge will certainly help in that department, forcing Gamrot to close a big distance (in a large cage) to initiate grappling.
Gamrot vs. Hooker Pick
My initial approach to this fight was to figure out how to bet on Gamrot without paying the heavy juice. But after watching tape, I've changed my tune.
Between Gamrot's tendency to eat big shots, Hooker's takedown defense and reach edge, and the way fights are scored now, I'm not sure Gamrot will be able to cover his price tag. Instead, I have two alternate angles.
The first is Hooker by knockout, which is +900 at BetRivers. Hooker certainly has the power to put anyone down, but this is also a bet based on some "knockout regression" for Gamrot.
He's played with fire for a long time, and it's rare to see a fighter dropped so many times without being finished. He could be one bad shot away from his chin failing him.
My primary bet, though, is Hooker +3.5 rounds on the point spread at DraftKings. To cash that bet, all he needs to do is survive the fight and win one round. With potentially favorable judging in Australia and his ability to rack up damage, taking a round should be well within reach.
Plus, Gamrot has failed to finish any of the ranked opponents he's faced, excluding the injury to Fiziev. The floor for Hooker is probably a dominant decision loss.
The Picks: Dan Hooker by KO/TKO/DQ (+900 at BetRivers, 0.25u) | Hooker +3.5 point spread (+100 at DraftKings, 0.75u)
