Tai Tuivasa vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik Odds
Check out the Tai Tuivasa vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik odds with my UFC 305 pick and prediction for Saturday, August 17.
If you told me that Tuivasa would be coming into UFC 305 on a four-fight losing skid, I would not have believed you.
The heavyweight fan favorite has fallen on hard times, but this weekend on home soil, he's got a main-card appointment with Jairzinho Rozenstruik.
Here's my Tuivasa vs. Rozenstruik preview with my betting pick for the fight.
Clint MacLean's Tale of the Tape
| Tuivasa | Rozenstruik | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 15-7 | 14-5 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 6:43 | 8:36 |
| Height | 6'2" | 6'2" |
| Weight (pounds) | 264 lbs. | 242 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 75" | 78" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 3/16/1993 | 3/17/1988 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.96 | 3.44 |
| SS Accuracy | 49% | 49% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 5.05 | 2.78 |
| SS Defense | 43% | 47% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.00 | 0.0 |
| TD Acc | 0% | 0% |
| TD Def | 57% | 75% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Tuivasa is on a skid, but the losses have come against the absolute best that the UFC has to offer: Ciryl Gane, Sergei Pavlovich, Alexander Volkov and, most recently, Marcin Tybura.
Honestly, I don't have any issue with Tuivasa losing to the first three names on that list, but you should not be getting submitted in Round 1 by Tybura.
Rozenstruik, meanwhile, was a fighter whom many felt belonged in the top three, but he has really struggled to gain traction. With a 3-3 record in his past six fights, he's also struggled with some of the best that the UFC has to offer.
Rozenstruik's calling card has become his patience and ability to wait out his opponents. Once he finds the right timing, Jairzinho has the power to close the show, but he can get stuck waiting.
Both fighters are listed as standing 6-foot-2, but based on the eye test, Rozenstruik is pushing 5-foot-11 on a good day. It will be interesting to see these two men face off because there is a very real chance that Tuivasa has a height and size advantage for the first time in a long time.
What I have noticed is that Rozenstruik does not check leg kicks well, and that is a specialty of Tuivasa. Tuivasa is relentlessly aggressive and will push the pace of this fight, which will provide opportunities for Rozenstruik to counter. And that's where things get interesting.
Tuivasa has always been able to take a good shot and is actually more dangerous when he is hurt. Rozenstruik does not thrive in a firefight, and I believe that is the key here.
Tuivasa vs. Rozenstruik Pick
Tuivasa's stock is at an all-time low coming into this fight. Rozenstruik is coming off a win, and that has 70% of Tapology users picking him to win this fight. However, the reality is that this is a very evenly matched fight between two very large men.
Tuivasa is training seriously for this fight for the first time in a long time, and he flew out to Abu Dhabi for his camp before returning home to Australia.
And when you have a fighter on home soil who is hungry for a win in what I see as a 50/50 fight, I will take the +190 underdog every time.
This fight is 'dog-or-pass, and I see a lot of value on the Tai Tuivasa moneyline.
At the time of this writing, you can find Tuivasa at +190 on Betfred. Alternatively, bet365 has +187, and BetMGM has +185.
The Pick: Tai Tuivasa (+190 at Betfred)
