Check out our early UFC predictions for UFC 305 on this Saturday, August 17, with our Luck Ratings.
UFC 305 takes place at RAC Arena in Perth, Australia, and the main card is on ESPN+ PPV (10 p.m. ET) following prelims on ESPN+ (6:30 p.m. ET) and ESPN (8 p.m. ET).
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was to start thinking about why markets might be wrong, rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, that’s what a betting line is: a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events happening. For the most part, these markets are efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA – where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA – it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to figure out spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll be looking into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, causing the line to be inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, fights that are later overruled, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights considered, as well.
The focus will be on fights reasonably likely to see the scorecards here, or in which one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
UFC 305 odds as of Monday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 305 with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC 305 Predictions & Luck Ratings
Champ Dricus du Plessis (+105) vs. Israel Adesanya (-130)
My gut reaction is that it's surprising to see the current champion as an underdog in a title fight, especially considering Dricus du Plessis' flawless 7-0 UFC record.
At the same time, "DDP" narrowly squeaked by Sean Strickland to win the belt – in a fight that easily could've been scored the other way and a slight majority of fan scorecards going to the American.
That's the same Sean Strickland who demolished Israel Adesanya to win the belt, of course, so "MMA math" would point toward the champion du Plessis. Whether that was just an off night for Adesanya or the beginning of the decline for the 35-year-old remains to be seen – and the answer to that question is critical for how you plan to bet this fight.
Outside of du Plessis' split decision win against Strickland, there isn't much in the way of "luck" on either fighter's resume. While I'm leaning toward the South African to retain his belt, I'll call this one fairly valued until we can dig in to some tape later this week.
Verdict: Fairly valued
Steve Erceg (-185) vs. Kai Kara-France (+154)
Kai Kara-France comes into this UFC 305 fight on a two-fight losing skid. The first of which was a knockout loss to former champion Brandon Moreno in an interim title fight, the second a split decision to Amir Albazi.
That split decision was almost unanimously scored the other way by most observers – save two of the three who actually mattered. Had it gone the other way, Kara-France likely would've gotten the title shot that eventually went to Steve Erceg at UFC 301.
Erceg lost a clear decision to Alexandre Pantoja, and it was the first UFC loss for the Australian.
Given the bad judging in Kara-France's last outing, this is a pretty clear luck spot for him. Money has already pushed down his line from +180 or so, but he can still be had at +170 at DraftKings or +165 at BetMGM. I'd jump on either of those before it's gone.
Verdict: Kai Kai Kara-France undervalued
Luana Santos (-180) vs. Casey O'Neil (+150)
One of the most promising prospects in women's MMA, Casey O'Neil has fallen on hard times. She started her UFC career 4-0 with three finishes before tearing her ACL in 2022 and losing consecutive fights since then.
Part of my lean toward O'Neil is based on her continued recovery from the injury. She should be back to full strength by now with pleny of time to heal and resume training since suffering the injury.
The other part is the short-notice nature of this bout for Luana Santos. Santos is coming in as a replacement for Tereza Bleda, and news broke about two weeks ago.
While that's not super short notice, Santos just fought last month, giving her just enough time to get out of shape between fights. Plus, she's also dealing with a ton of travel between events with this fight taking place in Australia.
That's enough for me to take O'Neil as a moderate underdog, with the best current line +150 – and dropping – on DraftKings.
Verdict: Casey O'Neil undervalued
