Raquel Pennington vs. Julianna Pena Odds
Check out the Raquel Pennington vs. Julianna Pena odds for UFC 307 on Saturday, October 5 with my expert UFC pick and prediction.
The co-main event for this weekend's UFC 307 pay-per-view event features a women's bantamweight title fight between reigning champion Raquel Pennington and former titleholder Julianna Pena.
Considering that bad blood between Pennington and Pena stems back to their time together during Season 23 of "The Ultimate Fighter," it's surprising that these two haven't officially crossed paths until now.
Pennington was able to capture the vacant bantamweight title back at UFC 297, besting Myra Bueno Silva for the better part of five rounds.
Pena, on the other hand, is coming off a lengthy layoff after losing her title back at UFC 277 to now-retired women's MMA great Amanda Nunes.
Dan Tom's Tale of the Tape
| Pennington | Pena | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 16-9 | 12-5 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 14:46 | 12:24 |
| Height | 5'7" | 5'6" |
| Weight (pounds) | 135 lbs. | 135 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 67" | 69" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 9/5/1988 | 8/19/1989 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.14 | 3.16 |
| SS Accuracy | 52% | 47% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.29 | 2.30 |
| SS Defense | 60% | 50% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.90 | 1.94 |
| TD Acc | 27% | 55% |
| TD Def | 63% | 23% |
| Submission Avg | 0.7 | 0.8 |
Regardless of how you break down their styles, Pennington and Pena are no doubt some of the grittiest fighters to grace this division.
Akin to her nickname of "Rocky," Pennington primarily prefers to make her money in the boxing department. Whether she's variating jabs down the centerline or slipping into uppercut-hook returns, the sitting champion stays incredibly composed in the pocket.
And when Pennington finds herself in closed quarters, she's good about grabbing collar ties that help her both control traffic and get off short shots on the inside.
That said, hanging out in clinch space could be risky against the likes of Pena.
Although Pena is not beyond changing her level for a shot in the open, most of the ex-champ's takedowns come from clinch scenarios. From body-lock takedowns to deceptive trips, Pena has traditionally been most effective in this phase of the fight.
And once Pena can ground her opposition, she's fairly aggressive when it comes to her ground striking and submission offense.
To Pena's credit, she's also shown improvements in her striking when it comes to her jabs and combinations. However, Pena still needs to be strategic about exchanging with a deceptively active counter-striker like Pennington.
Pennington vs. Pena Pick & Prediction
The oddsmakers and the public are favoring the sitting champion, listing Pennington -165 and Pena +135 as of this writing. Considering how wide women's MMA odds can get, it's refreshing to see a sensible line in play.
Although part of me was hoping for more public money to come in on Pena, I believe that this is roughly where the line will settle, all things considered.
Despite taking a shot against her last time out, Pennington has been a criminally underrated talent with whom I've done well betting on over the years.
Whereas Pena, annoying personality aside, has always been an overachiever who got by on toughness – which is a hard act to repeat time after time.
Pena also arrived in Salt Lake City just this week, which is a risky move considering that this fight is scheduled for five rounds at a high elevation.
Not only is Pena 0-2 when fighting at high elevation (losing to Valentina Shevchenko in the UFC and DeAnna Bennett on the regional circuit), but her opponent, Pennington, is a fairly high-paced body puncher who lives and trains at high altitude in her home of Denver, Colorado.
For that reason, I like the Pennington side – even if this fight does go long and get dirty.
Pennington also has an underrated front-choke acumen that I see being particularly live in this fight, so I'll be looking to sprinkle on the champ to win by submission (which you can find in the neighborhood of +400).
That said, you're best off kicking for coverage and sticking to the moneyline if you feel strongly about a side in this spot.
I was able to grab Pennington on a line dip for -156 but would play her straight for anything to -175.
But if that's too pricey for your blood and you're looking for plus money, then I suggest sticking Pennington in a parlay with another UFC 307 fighter such as her significant other, Tecia Pennington (-175), for a fun two-legger that has a solid chance of cashing.
The Pick: Raquel Pennington moneyline (-165 at BetMGM)
