Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Muslim Salikhov Odds
| 11:59 p.m. ET | |
Here's the latest on the Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Muslim Salikhov odds for UFC Denver on Saturday, July 13, with our expert pick and prediction.
The co-main event for UFC Denver (also called UFC on ESPN 59) features a potential welterweight war between Santiago Ponzinibbio and Muslim Salikhov.
Ponzinibbio is a certified veteran of this division who's known for his blood-and-guts style and sensibilities, but the "Argentine Dagger" has notably struggled since returning from a series of health issues sustained back in 2019.
Standing across from Ponzinibbio is another fighter who has struggled with consistency in Salikhov.
Although Salikhov recently turned 40, the "King of Kung Fu" has been deceptively competitive in recent defeats – appearing eager to get back in the win column.
Here's my Ponzinibbio vs. Salikhov pick and prediction for the UFC Denver co-main event tonight.
Tale of the Tape
| Ponzinibbio | Salikhov | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 30-7 | 19-5 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 11:01 | 10:36 |
| Height | 6'0" | 5'11" |
| Weight (pounds) | 171 lbs. | 171 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 73" | 70" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 9/26/1986 | 6/9/1984 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.9 | 3.4 |
| SS Accuracy | 41% | 51% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.7 | 2.9 |
| SS Defense | 61% | 62% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.48 | 1.27 |
| TD Acc | 30% | 40% |
| TD Def | 60% | 73% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Even though Salikhov and Ponzinibbio are primarily strikers by trade, both men have steadily improved their overall games since stepping onto the UFC scene.
Ponzinibbio, who quietly carries a black belt in jiu-jitsu, has slowly shored up his wrestling skills during his UFC tenure.
Complimenting his traditional pressure-fighting approach, it's not uncommon to now see Ponzinibbio mix in the occasional double-leg to keep his opposition honest.
Ponzinibbio is also good about scoring with strikers in transition, but the 37-year-old mainly makes his money in the boxing department.
Whether he's jabbing to the body or changing things up with a left hook up high, Ponzinibbio will let his punch count fly whenever he can corral his opposition between the fence and inner-black octagon lines.
But considering Salikhov's countering savvy and kicking acumen, Ponzinibbio will need to be careful when coming forward.
An elite wushu sanda fighter, Salikhov's striking sophistication and versatility are on par with many of his peers at 170 pounds. From his solid lead hand and fundamentals to the more flashy techniques like spinning kicks, Salikhov can pretty much do it all.
Akin to his Argentinian counterpart, Salikhov has also made strides in his wrestling game, both defensively and offensively. Not only is Salikhov better at fending off takedowns along the fence, but the native of Makhachkala is not beyond sprinkling in the occasional takedown shot to stymie his opponent's pace and pressure.
And if Salikhov ends up on top, the 13-year MMA pro has serviceable submissions like head-and-arm chokes he can go to.
Despite the oddsmakers opening this fight a little closer, public money has pushed the Argentinian fighter to a wider favorite, listing Ponzinibbio -215 and Salikhov +164 as of this writing.
Ponzinibbio vs. Salikhov Pick
Despite being a big fan of Ponzinibbio, I was a bit surprised to see him installed as a 2-1 favorite with public support.
I know MMA gamblers are the biggest ageists on the planet, but Ponzinibbio isn't exactly that far behind Salikhov given that they're only two birth years apart.
More importantly, I believe that this fight favors Salikhov from a stylistic perspective.
Not only does Salikhov possess the body attacks that have traditionally landed on his 37-year-old foe, but Ponzinibbio's boxing-centric stance could line him up nicely for the Russian fighter's leg kicks and spinning assaults alike.
Add in the fact that Ponzinibbio has been getting repeatedly dropped or stunned at a troubling rate, and I can't reliably pick him to survive Salikhov's early storm and pull away down the stretch like I would if this fight were made four or so years ago.
Salikhov is also coming off a stoppage loss, but he doesn't appear to be taking the same level of damage numbers-wise considering that Ponzinibbio nearly doubles him in the "strikes absorbed" department.
Denver's high elevation is the obvious elephant in the room when trying to forecast outcomes for fighters this weekend, but I like that Salikhov came into town three weeks early to better acclimate himself (something not a lot of other fighters were able to do).
For that reason, I believe this is a classic 'dog-or-pass spot, so I'll take Salikhov on the moneyline.
The Pick: Muslim Salikhov (+164 at FanDuel)
