Check out some early UFC Macau picks to see which fighters are over or undervalued heading into the Saturday, November 23 event.
The UFC heads to Macau for the finals of the Road to the UFC tournament that featured up-and-coming Asian prospects. Given the time zone difference, we have a special 3 a.m. ET (midnight PT) start time for the 13-fight card.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was to start thinking about why markets might be wrong, rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, that’s what a betting line is: A market where we can “buy” or “sell” events happening. For the most part, these markets are efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA — where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA — it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to find the spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll be looking into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, causing the line to be inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, fights that are later overruled, fluke injuries and out-of-weight-class fights also considered.
The focus will be on fights reasonably likely to see the scorecards, or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
UFC 309 odds as of Monday and via DraftKings. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC 309 Predictions & Luck Ratings
Petr Yan (-298) vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (+240)
Two former champions best known for their extended series of fights against a single opponent are now looking to get back in the title picture at 135 pounds.
That's the division that Yan once held the belt in, before losing a pair of somewhat controversial fights to Aljamain Sterling. Yan initially dropped the title via disqualification on an illegal knee, then lost a split decision in the rematch.
Yan then lost another, even more controversial, split decision to Sean O'Malley, before being beaten by Merab Dvalishvili. Interestingly, Yan's only pre-UFC fight was also via split decision. That means the only fighter to clearly beat him in a fight was the current champion, and all of his UFC losses came against former champs.
Figueiredo was the flyweight champion before eventually losing the title after a series of four fights with Brandon Moreno. After losing the fourth meeting of the pair, he moved up to bantamweight where he's currently 3-0. He also turns 37 next month, so time is limited for him to make a final run.
My gut reaction is that Figueiredo is undervalued here. He's looked great a this new weight class, and going up in weight helps stave off age-related decline to an extent by fighting slower opponents and cutting less weight.
With that said, Yan's history of bad luck makes it hard to bet against him without doing more research. I'll call this fairly valued for now, but will consider betting it later in the week.
Verdict: Fairly Valued
Xionan Yan (-205) vs. Tabatha Ricci (+170)
I was surprised to see Yan as a more than 2-1 favorite in the co-main event at Macau. Sure, she's coming off challenging Weili Zhang for the strawweight title at UFC 300. However, outside of a third round knockdown she was pretty thoroughly beaten and took tons of damage along the way.
Tabata Ricci is 7-2 in the UFC, with one of those losses coming up a weight class in her UFC debut. Her only other loss was via split decision to Lupita Godinez — though she has a controversial split decision win of her own in the meantime.
Still, she's six years younger and has the grappling ability to exploit Yan's weakness, so I like Ricci at +175 odds. An early knockout from Yan wouldn't shock me either, but that's why we're getting more money.
The best line is +175 at Caesars.
Verdict: Tabatha Ricci Undervalued
Muslim Salikhov (-175) vs. Song Kenan (+145)
Mulsim Salikhov has just one win in his last three fights. It came via split decision, in a bout most fans and media had scored against him.
That in and of itself wouldn't be a reason to fade "The King of Kung Fu." However, he's also on the wrong side of 40 years old and has taken two fairly bad knockouts in the last two or so years.
Song Kenan isn't a world-beater, but he's alternated wins and losses over the last two years since returning from an extended layoff. He's beaten lower-level competition while losing to opponents with winning UFC records.
It pains me to say it, but at this point in his career, Salikhov has more in common with the former camp than the ladder. I'll take Kenan in a home game at +145 on DraftKings.
