Check out our UFC predictions and Luck Ratings for UFC Atlantic City on Saturday, March 30.
Women's flyweight contenders square off in a possible title eliminator as part of this tonight's UFC fight card at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, New Jersey. Erin Blanchfield and Manon Fiorot both put their 6-0 UFC records on the line in a five-round main event, with the winner likely next in line for a title shot.
UFC Atlantic City is a 14-fight event that starts with a preliminary card on ESPN2 at 7 p.m. ET (4 p.m. PT) with the main card airing on ESPN at 10 p.m. ET. The entire event is also available on ESPN+.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was to start thinking about why markets might be wrong, rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, that’s what a betting line is: a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events happening. For the most part, these markets are efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA – where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA – it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to figure out spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll look into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, causing the line to be inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, fights that are later overruled, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights also considered.
The focus will be on fights reasonably likely to see the scorecards here, or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
*Odds as of Monday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Atlantic City with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC Predictions & Luck Ratings
Erin Blanchfield (-198) vs. Manon Fiorot (+164)
From a record standpoint, I couldn't imagine two fighters being more identical than Erin Blanchfield and Manon Fiorot. Both women are 6-0 in the UFC with all of their victories unanimous-decision wins or finishes.
Blanchfield is 12-1 as a pro while Fiorot is 11-1, and both of their losses came by split decision early in their careers to fellow future top-level fighters.
Neither has five-round experience prior to this fight, though Blanchfield was scheduled for five rounds in a fight she won in the second.
Yet Blanchfield is solidly favored, with the line shifting more and more in her direction. She was -164 on DraftKings on Sunday night before moving to -198 on Monday morning.
You can still get Blanchfield at -175 on BetMGM, which is an off line compared to the rest of the market. Take that if you can; otherwise, we'll wait until later in the week when prop markets open before committing to this one.
Verdict: Blanchfield Undervalued at BetMGM (-175)
Chidi Njokuani (-170) vs. Rhys McKee (+142)
Rhys McKee is 0-3 in the promotion across two separate stints in the UFC octagon, but that doesn't tell the whole tale. He made his debut in 2020 against an at-the-time unknown fellow prospect by the name of Khamzat Chimaev, and it went about how you'd expect. Since then, he's had two more decision losses against grapplers who controlled him on the canvas for much of the fight.
All he did between UFC stints was pick up three straight knockout victories while winning and subsequently defending the Cage Warriors title.
The matchup with Chidi Njokuani is much more favorable for McKee; Njokuani has never landed a takedown in six UFC bouts. "Chidi Chidi Bang Bang" has also lost three straight fights, including two by knockout. That's a bad sign for the 35-year-old.
As is the weight class.
Njokuani is returning to welterweight for this fight, his first such appearance since 2016. I'm almost always going to bet against fighters in their 30s trying to drop a weight class – and this is no exception.
This line has already moved a bit towards McKee, who opened at +170 on DraftKings. Grab the +143 line at BetRivers before it's too late.
Verdict: Rhys McKee Undervalued
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Dennis Buzukja (-125) vs. Connor Matthews (+105)
Another line that's already starting to move features UFC debutant Connor Matthews taking on Dennis Buzukja, who's 0-2 in the promotion.
Matthews opened around +115 depending on the book, but this line is quickly approaching pick'em territory. And that lines up with my initial read – unproven is probably better than proven to be bad, after all.
Furthermore, my colleague Sean Zerillo once described Buzukja's best attribute as "trying really hard," which has proven accurate – and proven insufficient at this level of the sport.
Grab Matthews at plus-money while you still can, with the best line being +110 on Caesars.
Verdict: Connor Matthews Undervalued
Ibo Aslan (-125) vs. Anton Turkalj (+105)
Anton "The Pleasure Man" Turkalj is 0-3 in the UFC. He's been finished in the first round twice plus an entirely non-competitive decision in which he failed to win a single round on any judges' scorecard.
He's getting a rare fourth crack at a win here, this time against UFC newcomer Ibo Aslan. Strangely enough, this is actually a rematch – Turkalj beat Aslan in a 2020 fight in Sweden, handing "The Last Ottoman" his only professional loss.
That earlier bout is likely the only reason this line is so close, considering Aslan is 12-1 overall with 12 knockouts. Given the trajectory of their careers since then, I'm willing to look past their first meeting as an aberration.
This is another line that's been on the move, so grab the -115 at Caesars Sportsbook as soon as possible.
