Check out our UFC Vegas 101 predictions for the Saturday, January 11, event in Las Vegas, Nevada, with prelims starting at 4 p.m. ET (1 p.m. PT). The entire card airs on ESPN+, with the main card starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Our MMA experts have studied this weekend's 14-fight lineup for their UFC best bets and have found plenty of value on the last card of the year.
So, where should you look to place your UFC bets? Our crew has pinpointed four picks on the Dern vs. Ribas fight card that present betting value.
You can find their analysis and picks on those matches, plus Sean Zerillo's projections, below.
Moneyline Projections
Prop Projections
All odds, unless stated otherwise, are from DraftKings. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC Vegas 101 Best Bets
Billy Ward: Ernesta Kareckaite vs. Nicolle Caliari
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 5:45 p.m. ET
While the line has moved somewhat since my Luck Ratings piece discussing this fight, it's not enough that it would scare me off my pick even if I hadn't already made the bet.
That's because I think the wrong fighter might be favored here. Ernesta Kareckaite has never beaten an opponent with a winning record by anything other than a split decision, and yet she comes into this fight a -270 or so favorite.
Nicolle Caliari has fought much tougher competition throughout her pro MMA career and has managed to finish all eight of her victories.
Caliari is also the far superior grappler in this matchup against a tall and lanky striker. That means win Caliari wins rounds it should be abundantly clear, while Kareckaite's high volume/low power striking leaves room for interpretation from the judges.
Calirai thus has a shot to win this one by controversial split decision — but she also has all of the finishing upside in the matchup. That's pretty nice considering she's more than a two-to-one underdog.
The +225 line at FanDuel is the best in the market, and I'm also somewhat interested in her juicy +600 odds to win inside the distance. I'd take her moneyline down to +200.
The Pick: Nicolle Caliari +225 (FanDuel)
Tony Sartori: Thiago Moises vs. Trey Ogden
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 6:15 p.m. ET
In the Thiago Moises (-185) vs. Trey Ogden (+150) prelim bout, I'm focusing on the underdog.
I think that the main reason why Moises is listed at -185 is that his past four losses are against much tougher competition than Ogden. Moises has fallen to Ludovit Klein, Benoit Saint-Denis, Joel Alvarez, and Islam Makhachev.
He's beaten lesser competition along the way, and since Ogden is not on the level of those four other fights, oddsmakers believe Moises will claim victory once again. However, I counter that, while Ogden aligns more closely with the skill level of the fighters that Moises has defeated rather than the ones he has lost to, Ogden still poses a challenging matchup for the favorite.
Ogden is a grappler who can win fights on the mat, whether by decision or submission. Each of his past four wins has come by one of those two methods, and Ogden has landed 11 takedowns over that stretch.
I should mention that one of those four wins was technically a no-contest, but he clearly won that fight by submission prior to the errors made by both the referee and the commission.
If his fights go to the mat, Ogden typically is in a good position to win. That is why I believe that he can upset Moises, given Moises' poor takedown defense.
Since joining the UFC, Moises has defended takedowns at a mere 55% clip. Across his five losses in this promotion, Moises has been taken down 13 times, and if that is the case against Ogden, it shouldn't be difficult for the underdog to win at least two of the three rounds.
Ogden will need to be cautious of Moises' submission attempts, but I have faith in his ability to do so given his black belt in BJJ and the fact that he hasn't tapped out in over five years.
The Pick: Trey Ogden ML +150 (BetMGM)
Bryan Fonseca: Christian Rodriguez vs. Austin Bashi
Contributor at Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:45 p.m. ET
Respectfully, are we sure Austin Bashi should be this large of a favorite?
Rodriguez has beaten three undefeated UFC competitors within the last two years alone in Raul Rosas Jr. (7-0), Cameron Saaiman (9-0), and Isaac Dulgarian (6-0).
Rodriguez was an underdog against Rosas at +230 and +180 vs. Dulgarian. He was narrowly -115 favored to beat Saaiman. Rodriguez decisioned all three guys. Yes, he was choked out by Julian Erosa last we saw him in July, but Rodriguez's body of work in this same spot leading up to that bout.
Slight height and reach advantages in Rodriguez's favor, who has finishing ability (three knockouts) and four submissions, so this is a bet on his pedigree, versatility, and overall ability.
I think he can cover the points and outright win — the latter bet will only be a sprinkle at +225 (Bet 365).
The Pick: Christian Rodriguez +3.5 -135 (DraftKings)
Sean Zerillo: Chris Curtis vs. Roman Kopylov
Senior Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:15 p.m. ET
While Roman Kopylov has successfully mixed in takedowns against fellow strikers, the Russian kickboxer seems unlikely to ground Chris Curtis, who offers excellent takedown defense (82% career; denied 43 of 52 attempts).
As a result, I expect a boxer vs. kickboxer striking fight between Curtis and Kopylov – and its difficult to cover a hefty pricetag in a pure striking fight.
Kopylov should take an early lead with superior kicks, footwork, and lateral movement before Curtis swings the momentum in the back half of the fight with better bodywork and cardio.
Curtis can become frustrated against mobile opponents, but Kopylov has less room to maneuver in the 25-foot APEX octagon than he would in a full-sized cage. While Curtis may have difficulty finding his range early, Kopylov's movement will eventually slow, allowing Curtis to close the distance and throw boxing combinations.
The more Curtis can land, the more he will succeed; body punches should further drain Kopylov's already suspect gas tank.
I favor Curtis winning a third-round more frequently than I would favor Kopylov winning in round one, and I view the pair's finishing equity as relatively comparable.
Bet Curtis pre-fight to +175 (projected +158) and take him to win by decision (projected +310, listed +560).
Moreover, you can bet Curtis on the point spread (+3.5, -125) and look for a better moneyline price live after Round 1, which may be the peak buying opportunity on the underdog.
The Pick: Chris Curtis +195 at BetRivers | Chris Curtis by Decision +650 at BetWay | Chris Curtis +3.5 Points (-125) at DraftKings
