Marcin Tybura vs. Serghei Spivac Odds
| UFC Apex in Las Vegas | |
Here's everything you need to know about the Marcin Tybura vs. Serghei Spivac odds at UFC Vegas 95 on Saturday, Aug. 10, with my expert UFC prediction and pick.
This weekend the UFC will return to the UFC Apex in Las Vegas for an important main event and a rematch in the heavyweight division between No. 8-ranked contender Marvin Tybura and No. 9 Serghei Spivac.
The pair initially fought in February 2020 – priced as a pick'em – with Tybura winning a unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28) by outgrappling Spivac and securing at least two minutes of control time in all three rounds.
Tybura is 7-2 since that fight with losses to Tom Aspinall and Alexander Volkov. Spivac has gone 6-2 with losses to Aspinall and Ciryl Gane. Saturday will mark the third consecutive main event for both fighters, but only Tybura has seen the championship rounds (in November 2017 against Fabricio Werdum).
Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC Vegas 95 main event and utilize those factors to bet on Spivac and Tybura, who should make their cage walks at approximately 9:25 p.m. ET (6:25 p.m. ET) on Saturday evening on ESPN and ESPN+. The event kicks off with prelims at 5 p.m. ET on ESPN and ESPN+.
Sean Zerillo's Tale of the Tape
| Tybura | Spivac | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 25-8 | 16-4 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 11:37 | 8:05 |
| Height | 6'3" | 6'3" |
| Weight (pounds) | 252 lbs. | 238 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 78" | 78" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 11/9/1985 | 1/24/1995 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.60 | 3.54 |
| SS Accuracy | 48% | 49% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.35 | 3.79 |
| SS Defense | 55% | 49% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.43 | 4.56 |
| TD Acc | 33% | 64% |
| TD Def | 79% | 70% |
| Submission Avg | 0.1 | 0.5 |
In 2020, both fighters were likely equally distant from their respective physical primes – Spivac at age 25 and Tybura at age 35.
While heavyweights tend to age more gracefully than fighters in other divisions, Spivac has matured in the four-year interim, adding 20 pounds of muscle to his frame in his past two fights compared to the first bout (he weighed in at 234 pounds in 2020 against Tybura, who weighed 246).
Spivak has slimmed back down by 18 pounds since his last fight, however, which complicates the analysis.
Four and a half years ago, Tybura was the stronger athlete, especially in the clinch. Still, Spivac had seemingly neutralized that strength differential by adding muscle, and he should remain the quicker athlete, even though both are below-average athletically relative to their division.
Spivac won the distance striking exchanges in the first fight (20-15) with cleaner boxing and effective combinations, particularly after blitzing his opponent. Tybura, who normally keeps his hands low, did his best to maintain a tight, high guard – especially while retreating. He ate some punches but didn't appear at all affected by Spivac's power or concerned about potential takedown attempts from the Moldovan, who is typically the more proactive grappler of the pair (attempts 4.9 per round, compared to 2.5 for Tybura).
With added muscle, I expected that Spivac would carry more power into this matchup, and I could see him hurting Tybura with those same straight punches he landed the first time. An early Spivac knockout is the likeliest way this fight finishes.
While Spivac showed minimal urgency or effectiveness scrambling off his back after takedowns, Tybyra had only one clean entry (Round 3, when he locked his hands against the fence); otherwise, Spivac put himself into bad positions with poor fight IQ. In the first two rounds, Spivac tried to use either a whizzer kick or hip toss to deny Tybura's single-leg entries or get on top himself. Spivac fell to his back the first time and awkwardly to his knees, where Tybura took his back, the second time.
In the smaller UFC Apex cage, Spivac should be able to use the fence to keep himself upright – and defend those entries from Tybura – if he doesn't try to switch positions and end up on top himself. Tybura is the better defensive grappler with a superior getup game, and he retains the offensive grappling upside in this matchup; still, I'd expect a more muscled-up Spivac to have an easier time defending takedowns than he did in the first matchup, provided Spivac fights intelligently.
That said, the only fighter who has tried to grapple Spivac offensively – since the first Tybura matchup – was a then-44-year-old Aleksei Oleinik in 2021. It's difficult to confirm that Spivac has made the necessary adjustments, and I suspect that he has. However, each takedown could still be round in Tybura's favor, and Spivac doesn't do a ton to separate himself by wide margins on the feet.
As a result, any grappling rounds are likely clear for Tybura. In contrast, striking rounds likely favor Spivac 60/40 or 65/35, at best – and I'd typically back the fighter who can widen the margins on minute-winning.
While Spivac has more finishing upside early, I suspect that Tybura, who has willed himself with grit and determination through adversity in other fights, has a chance to finish this bout late if Spivac tires.
Tybura vs. Spivac Pick
I projected Sergei Spivac as a -165 favorite (62.3% implied odds) in this matchup, and I don't project value on either side of the moneyline at current prices; I would take Spivac at -150 (60% implied) or better pre-fight.
However, I expect this fight to reach a decision 44.4% of the time (+125 implied odds) and would bet the Over 3.5 Rounds to -115 or the Goes to Decision prop to +135.
The first matchup was never close to a finish, and while neither fighter is exceptionally durable, neither is a particularly potent finisher either. An early Spivac knockout is the likeliest threat to the Over, and a late Tybura finish could kill those plus-money decision props.
Lastly, you can consider betting on either fighter to win by decision – I set Spivac at +358 (listed +350) and Tybura at +342 (listed +400) – but I'll stick with a straight bet on the total rather than juicier, plus-money alternatives.
The Picks: Tybura vs. Spivac over 3.5 rounds (-105 at DraftKings) | Sergei Spivac (-150 or better)
