Sunday's Bank of America ROVAL 400 (2 p.m. ET, NBC) at Charlotte Motor Speedway is the final chance for drivers to lock themselves into the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs Round of 8.
It's important to note that stage breaks have been added back for today's race, meaning the caution will fly at the end of Stages 1 and 2, which will make strategy crucial depending on each team's agenda.
For example, drivers like William Byron and Ryan Blaney, who have already advanced to the next round, and Denny Hamlin, who is 50 points ahead of the cutoff spot, along with those out of the playoffs will likely pit before the ends of the stages to optimize track position.
On the other hand, drivers closer to the playoff cut line should stay out to earn stage points, which could ultimately hurt their chances to win this afternoon's race.
When breaking down NASCAR odds for Charlotte, it's imperative to consider each driver's agenda, including what that means from a betting value perspective as well.
The matchup below is a prime example.
NASCAR Pick for Charlotte ROVAL
*NASCAR odds as of Sunday morning
The Ty Gibbs vs. Chris Buescher driver matchup is priced -115 both ways, but it's very important to consider each of their goals for today's race.
Buescher, who is still alive in the NASCAR playoffs, is 19 points above the transfer spot, meaning he'll very likely be looking to maximize stage points throughout the race even though that may negatively impact his final finishing position.
Gibbs is not in the playoffs, so he has only one goal: win.
Don't be surprised to see Buescher stay out at the ends of Stages 1 and 2 to gobble up as many stage points as possible while Gibbs should pit prior to those cautions, cycling him ahead of Buescher in both instances.
And while I do say cycle ahead, there's also a good chance that the No. 54 Toyota will already be in front of the No. 17 Ford anyway.
To start, Gibbs qualified 10th for today's race, while Buescher will start back in 20th, and as we've seen time and time again at road courses in the Next Gen car, track position is king.
In addition, the young Joe Gibbs Racing driver posted the better five-lap average in practice, suggesting that Gibbs may just be flat-out faster than Buescher as well.
Gibbs has the better starting position, was the faster car in practice and will likely be on the optimal strategy to score the best finish possible while Buescher will be more focused on stage points, yet this matchup is priced as a pick'em.
Give me Gibbs at -115 to finish ahead of Buescher.
The bet: Ty Gibbs (-115) over Chris Buescher (bet365)
