On Sunday NASCAR heads to Nashville for the fourth time since the series started visiting the track in 2021.
Over those first three races, we've now gotten a decent enough sample size to build some meaningful correlations out to help us handicap this Sunday's Ally 400 (3:30 p.m. ET, NBC).
I looked at the following metrics for each driver, every year, at non-drafting oval tracks that the Cup Series runs at before Nashville:
- Driver Rating
- Average Running Position
- Green Flag Speed Ranking
When correlating those metrics to these same three metrics at Nashville, an interesting list of tracks pops up from most correlated to least correlated. The top three are:
- Kansas – 0.780
- Las Vegas – 0.738
- Dover – 0.729
Phoenix comes in fourth and Darlingon in fifth, but adding in those two tracks decreased the predictability of my model, so I'll largely focus on the top three for my favorite outright bet for Nashville.
NASCAR Odds, Expert Pick for Nashville
In each of the past three years, the driver who finished first in my FLAGS metric at the spring Kansas race has gone on to finish either first or second all three years.
In 2021, Kyle Larson topped Kansas-1 FLAGS and won at Nashville. In 2022 it was Kurt Busch topping Kansas-1 FLAGS and finishing second at Nashville. And just last year, Ross Chastain repeated Larson's 2021 feat with the No. 1 spot in FLAGS at spring Kansas followed by a win at Nashville.
This year, Denny Hamlin has the honor of being the top driver in FLAGS from the first Kansas race, with Kyle Larson and Chris Buescher close behind.
I really like Hamlin because not only does he pop at Kansas, but he has a great track record in the Next Gen car at Nashville itself. Hamlin has led the most laps in those two races, and he has the second-best average running position behind only his teammate Martin Truex Jr. – whom my Action Network colleague PJ Walsh wrote up at +850 earlier this week (Truex was fourth in FLAGS at Kansas).
Hamlin also won at Dover earlier this year, another one of the top-three correlated tracks to Nashville, and the only other concrete track at least a mile in length that NASCAR competes at.
My model has Hamlin at 14.5% to win, and earlier today, I bet him at FanDuel at +650 (13.3%). Those odds at FanDuel have since dropped to +550. However, if you have Circa Sportsbook available in your state, they have Hamlin at +615 (14.0%), and I still show some value there.
Otherwise, at the time of this writing, the best line you'll find is +600 at ESPN BET and BetRivers. I personally won't play that line, but if Hamlin's odds drift north of 6-1 again, I'd bite.
The Bet: Denny Hamlin to Win (+615 at Circa) | Bet to: +615
