I'm sure I sound like a broken record these days, but for various reasons I'm taking a conservative approach to NASCAR odds for Gateway today.
Mainly, Saturday's practice session was run in temperatures much cooler than what drivers will face during Sunday's Enjoy Illinois 300 (3:30 p.m. ET, FS1).
This means cars will handle differently during the race than they did in practice, so we need to take Saturday's speeds with a grain of salt.
Further, the tire combination cars will run is different than the previous two years at Gateway, and the cooler weather during practice did not give teams a clear picture of how this tire will wear in race conditions.
But NASCAR odds are NASCAR odds, and sometimes I just can't help myself.
NASCAR Odds, Pick for Gateway
*Odds as of Saturday night
We all know that Kyle Larson is arguably the best driver in the NASCAR Cup Series and has a rocket ship for a race car.
So I'm a bit surprised to see Larson sitting at -120 for a top-10 finish for Sunday's race.
I do understand this isn't his best track type, but it's not like he's been terrible here, either. In the two Cup Series races at Gateway, Larson has the fifth-best average finish.
And yes, the No. 5 Chevrolet didn't qualify at the front of the field; however, it will start a respectable 13th.
The bottom line is that Larson's -120 (bet365) odds for a top-10 finish translate to a 54.55% implied probability, which seems like a bargain at essentially every Cup Series track.
The Bet: Kyle Larson Top-10 Finish (-120) – bet365
