Rain is in the forecast, and it could impact this weekend's activities at Auto Club Speedway.
According to the National Weather Service, there's an 80% chance of rain on Saturday during the daytime. That does reduce to 55% after 4 p.m. PT (local time).
With the Xfinity race on the Saturday slate, it's extremely likely that if it's raining at 11:50 am PT when Cup Series qualifying is set to take place, the starting order will be set by the qualifying metric.
That's where our edge is.
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That potential qualifying metric is a formula that takes into account 25% the previous race finish, 25% the previous owner's finish, 35% the 2023 owner's point standings, and 15% the previous race's fastest lap.
While the official metric hasn't been released yet, I ran the calculation myself based off the current 36-car entry list.
Just like last week, when we hit a 13-1 bet on the starting position of the Daytona 500 winner coming from starting spots 31+, FanDuel is offering this same bet for Fontana.
This week, the odds look like this:
- 1-10: -125
- 11-20: +250
- 21-30: +340
- 31+: +1100
If the starting order is set by the metric, then according to my calculations, drivers such as Chase Elliott, Erik Jones, William Byron and Tyler Reddick are set to start 31st or worse.
My combined winning probability of just those four drivers is 25.1%.
Even if my model is high on those drivers, even if Elliott somehow doesn't squeak into the 31st starting spot if my calculations are off, and even if the chance of rain reduces slightly, we're still in a good spot.
Let's assume there's only a 50% chance rain washes out qualifying. We're still OK because my model would have to overestimate the trio of Jones, Byron and Reddick by 2.5% to no longer show value.
There's plenty of risk here should qualifying take place, so make sure to take that into account when performing your own personal risk assessment. If qualifying does take place, there's a very small chance this bet wins.
But when the downside assumption I've made still shows value, I'm going to make the bet. I'm in for two units.
Pick: 31+ Starting Position of Race Winner (+1100) | Bet to +950 |
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