The Cleveland Cavaliers (29-4) and Dallas Mavericks (20-14) will face off in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 8:30 p.m. ET from the American Airlines Center in Dallas. The game will broadcast live on NBA League Pass.
The Cavaliers are 7.5-point favorites over the Mavericks on the spread, with the over/under set at 231.5 total points. Cleveland is a -290 favorite to win outright, while Dallas is +235 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Cavaliers vs. Mavericks predictions and NBA picks for Friday night.
Cavaliers vs. Mavericks Prediction, Picks
Spread
The Mavericks are currently struggling with a lack of form, having lost three straight contests, including two defeats against the below.500 Kings and Trail Blazers. Things won't get any easier for them on Friday night when the 29-win Cavaliers come to town.
Moneyline
While I wouldn't consider laying -275 with visitors as an outright bet, the moneyline could provide some insurance if included in a same game parlay.
Over/Under
I see no value in the total, as my model has a projection of 231. With the market sitting at 231.5, there isn't enough of an edge to sanction a play in either direction.
My Pick: Cavaliers -7 (-110)
Cavaliers vs. Mavericks Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Cavaliers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -105 | 231.5 -110 / -110 | -290 |
| Mavericks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -115 | 231.5 -110 / -110 | +235 |
- Cavaliers vs. Mavericks spread: Cavaliers -7.5
- Cavaliers vs. Mavericks over/under: 231.5 total points
- Cavaliers vs. Mavericks moneyline: Cavaliers -290, Mavericks +235
- Cavaliers vs. Mavericks best bet: Cavaliers -7 (-110)
My Mavericks vs. Cavaliers best bet is on Cleveland to cover the spread as 7.5-point road favorites, with the best line currently available at bet365. But as always, make sure to shop for the best line using our live NBA odds page.
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Dallas Mavericks Preview
Following an impressive start to the campaign, there were plenty of questions about whether the Cavaliers were the real deal. But now, with Cleveland still having the best record in the league at 29-4, those doubts are starting to subside.
No one could have seen this coming when the Cavaliers decided to make a change at head coach — firing J.B. Bickerstaff and replacing him with Kenny Atkinson. After all, Bickerstaff led the Cavaliers to back-to-back playoff appearances.
Unfortunately, the Cavaliers' near first-round exit against a young and up-and-coming Magic team didn't sit well with Cleveland's general manager, Mike Gansey, who explained his decision by citing a need for a "fresh approach."
Gansey is undoubtedly getting his wish with Atkinson now at the helm. Atkinson had always been one of the most respected voices around the league, having made multiple stops as an assistant with the Knicks, Hawks, Clippers and Warriors.
He did get a shot at being the head coach of the Nets, but during his tenure, the team went 118-190 (.383).
However, when Atkinson took over the Nets, they didn't have much talent, yet still managed to get to the playoffs in his third season (2019) before stepping down the following year.
This Cavaliers team has much more talent than Atkinson had during his time in Brooklyn, which means they're better suited to adapt to his principles. Atkinson has challenged the Cavaliers to play with a more up-tempo style based on ball movement and quicker decision-making.
As a result, the Cavaliers jumped from 24th in pace under Bickerstaff to eighth with Atkinson while returning essentially the same group of players. The Cavaliers' offseason mostly involved taking care of business in-house by locking up their own players:
- Signed Donovan Mitchell to a three-year, $54 million contract extension.
- Signed Evan Mobley to a five-year, $224 million contract.
- Signed Jarrett Allen to a three-year, $91 million contract extension.
- Re-signed Isaac Okoro to a three-year, $38 million deal.
Atkinson has also transformed the Cavaliers into a perimeter-shooting team. By playing faster, the Cavaliers have more scoring opportunities, allowing them to take more risks beyond the arc.
Cleveland now attempts 40.3 3-pointers per game, up from 36.8 in the previous season. Remarkably, Cleveland's additional 3.5 3-pointers result in roughly three more 3-point field goals per game (16.4 vs. 13.5).
The reality is that Atkinson's insistence on quick ball movement ensures the Cavaliers are getting quality shots in their offense while still improving defensively, as evidenced by an efficiency rating (109.7 vs. 112.1) that's 2.4 points better than their previous campaign.
Cavaliers vs. Mavericks Best Bets, Predictions
The Mavericks have largely been able to manage games this season without Luka Doncic. First, they won five out of six games without him and then seven out of nine.
However, some regression always seemed likely, and we're starting to see that with this three-game losing streak. While Kyrie Irving, P.J. Washington, and Dereck Lively II have also been in and out of the lineup during this recent skid, all three players were on the court when they lost to the Rockets on New Year's Day.
Although I'd readily agree we're paying a premium with the Cavaliers at -6.5, I still expect them to win the game, making the moneyline a better option as part of our same game parlay.
Spencer Dinwiddie is one player I'm particularly looking to fade on the Mavericks. The Dallas backup point guard has struggled against top-10 defenses, performing well below expectations in surpassing his points + assists prop of 20.5.
In this spot, Dinwiddie has stayed under the number in 15 of his last 19 games against top-10 defenses, and his average of 22.5 minutes in those games is right on par with his season numbers of 22.7.
Moreover, Dinwiddie has stayed under 20.5 points + assists in his last three games against the Cavaliers while averaging 21.5 minutes.
I also like him to stay under 1.5 3-pointers for the game. Dinwiddie hasn't been at his best from beyond the arc compared to recent years, as he's shooting 34.1%. At home, he's been even worse, shooting just 31.1%.
Dinwiddie has stayed under two 3-pointers in his last four home games and has gone over this number just four out of 14 times in this spot this season.
At bet365, Dinwiddie under 1.5 3-pointers is available at a juicy price of +130, and adding this third leg would help boost our same game parlay odds to +240.
Best Bet: Cavaliers -7 (-110, bet365)
Mavericks vs. Cavaliers Parlay Picks
- Cavaliers Moneyline (-290)
- Spencer Dinwiddie Under 20.5 Points + Assists (-115)
- Spencer Dinwiddie Under 1.5 3-point Field Goals (+120)
Parlay Payout: +240
