The Cleveland Cavaliers (34-5) and Oklahoma City Thunder (33-7) will face off in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET from the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. The game will broadcast live on TNT.
The Thunder are 2-point favorites over the Cavs on the spread, with the over/under set at 233 total points. Oklahoma City is a -130 favorite to win outright, while Cleveland is +110 to pull off the upset.
Let's get to my Cavaliers vs. Thunder predictions and NBA picks for Thursday, January 16.
Cavaliers vs. Thunder Prediction, Picks
Spread
My Thunder vs. Cavaliers best bet is on Oklahoma City to cover the spread as short home favorites, with the best line currently available at BetMGM. But as always, make sure to shop for the best line using our live NBA odds page.
Over/Under
I'm staying away from the total in tonight's matchup.
My Pick: Thunder -1.5 (-115)
Cavaliers vs. Thunder Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Cavaliers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2 -110 | 233 -110 / -110 | +110 |
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2 -110 | 233 -110 / -110 | -130 |
- Cavaliers vs. Thunder spread: Thunder -2
- Cavaliers vs. Thunder over/under: 233 points
- Cavaliers vs. Thunder moneyline: Cavaliers +110, Thunder -130
- Cavaliers vs. Thunder best bet: Thunder -1.5 (-115)
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder NBA Preview
The Cavaliers head to Oklahoma City as they look to sweep the season series against the Thunder. Can the Cavaliers replicate their success from last week or will the Thunder protect their home court?
A week ago, the Cavaliers won 129-122 in a thrilling matchup between the best of each conference. One of the key elements of that game was Cleveland's relentlessness at the rim, going 23/33 at the Rim per Cleaning the Glass.
However, one of the issues for this game is that Isaiah Hartenstein (calf) will be sidelined for the Thunder, their primary form of rim protection.
Hartenstein has been awesome for the Thunder as they've needed to navigate Chet Holmgren's (hip) absence. He has been a net-positive for OKC, but the advanced metrics have not shown him to be overwhelming like he was last season for the Knicks. He's +1.4 overall, but a -3.2 on offense, making him 4.6 points better on defense, per Cleaning the Glass.
While he deters attempts at the rim, it contributes to more 3-point attempts. His impact may have been overstated to a degree.
The Thunder have a +11.7 point differential when both Hartenstein and Chet are off the floor. They remain tremendous with Jalen Williams playing the 5. This will be a test though. This is a test between one of the ultimate small ball lineups and a traditional dual big lineup that the Cavs run.
The Cavaliers' primary lineup with Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, and Jarrett Allen holds a +9.3 Net Rating and is scoring 122.2 points per 100 possessions. However, the defense has been surprisingly average at 113.0.
We've seen the Cavs' defense slip out of the top-10, and much of this may be due to some slight shooting variance.
The Cavaliers' allowed eFG% is 53.3%, but it's 1.5% better than their expected. They are exploitable from beyond the arc, and much of that has to do with having smaller perimeter players and a reliance on keeping two bigs in the game.
When Chet and Hartenstein are off the floor, the Thunder push a flurry of 3-pointers, with 45.2% of their shots coming from beyond the arc, which would be the second-highest frequency in the league. However, the shooting percentage of 34.8% would rank 23rd.
Cavaliers vs. Thunder Best Bets, Predictions
This matchup sets up a showdown between two opposite ends of the personnel spectrum.
However, the Thunder have excelled at playing their game and forcing others and more traditional lineups to adapt.
They have tremendous depth and versatility, and they have already played some games without a true center.
Both of these teams have been tremendous against the spread, but there is not enough respect for this Thunder team at home.
I'll lay the 2.5 and back OKC.
For my same game parlay, I will grab Jalen Williams 6+ Rebounds, a mark he's hit in 4-of-5 games without Chet and Hartenstein, as well as SGA to score 30+ Points and record 5+ Assists.
Best Bet: Thunder -1.5
Thunder vs. Cavaliers Parlay Picks
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ Points (-175)
- Jalen Williams 6+ Rebounds (-130)
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 5+ Assists (-200)
Parlay Payout: +225
