Game 3 of the NBA Finals between the Boston Celtics and Dallas Mavericks occurs Wednesday at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN and ABC.
Keep reading for my NBA first-basket prop picks for Celtics vs. Mavericks Game 3.
Through two games, Horford leads Boston’s starters in first-quarter field goal attempts and wide open first-quarter field goal attempts. He’s the lesser of all evils when other options include Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Derrick White and Jrue Holiday. So, the Mavericks should continue to let him shoot.
Horford has only taken Boston’s first shot in two-of-12 starts this postseason (16.6%), but one of those came against the Mavericks. Based on the matchup, I expect Horford to be more involved than usual in terms of first-basket usage. It does not have to be a radical increase either because his +500 odds only have a 16.6% implied probability.
I would play Horford first Celtics field goal at a half unit, down to +400 odds.
Brown and Tatum easily face the most defensive pressure because Dallas’ forwards (Derrick Jones Jr. and P.J. Washington) are their strongest defenders. That’s not the case for Holiday, who can physically overwhelm Irving, blow past Doncic, or sneak inside for a cut while the defense collapses. He is also capitalizing on his opportunities as Holiday is 15-for-23 from the field.
Along with a favorable matchup, Holiday has taken Boston’s first shot in five-of-16 starts this playoffs. That’s 31.2% of the time, which is tied with Brown for the largest rate so far. Holiday secured Boston’s second shot in Game 1 and first shot in Game 2. Based on his shot profile, usage, efficiency and Dallas’ defensive identity, look for Holiday to continue to snatch early attempts for the Celtics.
I would put a half unit on this and play it down to +400 odds.
