Mavericks vs Timberwolves Game 5 Prediction: NBA Expert Pick, Odds (Thursday, May 30)
Pictured: Kyrie Irving of the Mavericks and Mike Conley of the Timberwolves for Action Network’s odds, pick, and prediction for Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals.
Mavericks vs. Timberwolves Odds
| Mavericks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+5 -110 | 209.5 -110/-110 | +165 |
| Timberwolves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-5 -110 | 209.5 -110/-110 | -199 |
Here's everything you need to know about Mavericks vs. Timberwolves on Thursday, May 30 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today's game.
The Minnesota Timberwolves extended the series with a 105-100 victory on Tuesday night. They are up against history and teams down 3-0 in the playoffs are 0-155 in NBA history when trying to overcome that series deficit. Here though, Minnesota is priced at just +420 to complete the comeback. Considering the Wolves have to win three more games — with two coming at home — a comeback isn't completely unreasonable, despite the history.
Although Dallas is up 3-1 in the series, the Mavericks have just a seven-point point differential through four games. This series is closer than the wins and losses are conveying and Game 5 should be a thriller. Let's dive in.
The Dallas Mavericks head on the road and the status of Dereck Lively (neck – Questionable) looms large. Lively has been instrumental to Dallas' defensive process and without him, the Mavericks' rim protection is lacking. While they returned Maxi Kleber (shoulder), he is not a primary rim protector or a lob threat, and his shot was a bit uneasy when he returned from an extended absence in Game 4. The Mavericks tried to play Dwight Powell for a few minutes, but he immediately showed why he was riding the pine coming into Game 4.
Dallas had a rough Game 4. It scored just 98 points with an eFG% of just 50.6%, by far its worst offensive performance of the series. The Mavericks' offense rating was just 105.4, compared to marks north of 114.9 in each of the prior three games. They struggled to convert and one of the bigger changes was the alignment of Minnesota's defenders. Jaden McDaniels started on Kyrie Irving while Anthony Edwards was on Luka Doncic. Irving managed just 16 points on 18 shots and even though Doncic scored 28 points, it was fairly inefficient with a 33% shooting percentage from the field.
Jaden Hardy has been a bright spot off the bench for Dallas. So far this series, he has played nine, 12, 11 and 12 minutes and has scored two, eight, seven and 13 points. His points prop is set at 5.5 (+100 BetMGM) and I'll be grabbing that over. His ability to score at multiple levels is instrumental for Dallas to give both Doncic and Irving a bit of rest. Tim Hardaway Jr. has been excised from the rotation and Hardy has been the beneficiary.
The shots started to fall for the Minnesota Timberwolves on Tuesday night. In Game 4, the Wolves had a series-high eFG% of 60.1% and shot 45.8% from 3. They were able to score at every level and without Lively clogging up the interior, the offense opened up.
Edwards thrived. He was able to attack the rim while leading the offense with his dribble penetration. He was able to get to the interior and as the defense collapsed on him, he found his teammates for open looks, particularly in the second half when he recorded all nine of his assists. Because he was able to score early, the defense had to respect him. Due to that, those looks for his teammates were a bit higher quality.
A major story for the Wolves was foul trouble. Karl-Anthony Towns fouled out, Rudy Gobert had five and Edwards also had five fouls. That changed their minutes, rotations and their aggressiveness on the defensive side of the ball. Despite the foul trouble, Minnesota saw Towns break out of his offensive slump. Towns scored 25 points in the game, but 10 in the fourth quarter with three critical 3s down the stretch. Towns is extremely streaky, but if this is a moment where his shots begin to fall, it significantly raises this team's ceiling.
Mavericks vs. Timberwolves
Betting Pick & Prediction
Both teams have things to clean up in Game 5. In Game 4, Dallas' stars shot poorly and combined for 44 points on 13-of-39 shooting, which is significantly below average for Doncic and Irving. As for the Timberwolves, they had 15 turnovers and conceded a whopping 30 points off of those turnovers.
These teams both can make some adjustments here, but considering how close this series has been, this number for Dallas is too high.
This line opened at -4 and was immediately steamed up to Wolves -5. Despite that, I'm interested in the Mavericks against the spread. Three of the four games in this series have been decided by five or fewer points. The other game was a Dallas victory by nine points. Additionally, while I think it is unlikely Lively plays, if he does, it's an immediate boost for the Mavericks.
Last game, we gave out Minnesota +2.5 Games (+300), so we also have a nice middle opportunity by grabbing the points with the road 'dog.
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