The Memphis Grizzlies (24-14) and Minnesota Timberwolves (20-17) will meet in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 8:00 p.m. ET at the Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The game will broadcast live on FDSN and NBA League Pass.
The Timberwolves are 1.5-point favorites over the Grizzlies on the spread (Wolves -1.5), with the over/under set at 231 total points. Minnesota is a -125 favorite to win outright, while Memphis +105 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves predictions and NBA picks for Saturday, January 11.
Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves Picks, Prediction
Spread
With Minnesota laying 1.5 points at home, there's not a massive jump in laying -110 on the spread and -120 on the moneyline. Thus, this is a spot where we won't lose a whole lot by simply backing the Timberwolves on the ML.
Moneyline
Given how the Grizzlies have performed on the road against quality defensive teams, the moneyline is my preferred wager in this spot.
Over/Under
Although my model projects a total closer to 227, the Grizzlies play at the fastest pace in the league, and away from home, they have a league-best 13-5 mark for over-bettors.
My Pick: Timberwolves Moneyline (-125)
Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves Odds
| Grizzlies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 231 -110o / -110u | +105 |
| Timberwolves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 231 -110o / -110u | -125 |
- Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves spread: Timberwolves -1.5
- Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves over/under: 231 total points
- Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves moneyline: Grizzlies +105, Timberwolves -125
- Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves best bet:Timberwolves ML (-125)
Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves Preview
As good as the Grizzlies have been this season, they've been particularly away from home. When you look at the top four teams in the Western Conference, the Grizzlies are the only ones that don't have a winning record.
While being 9-9 on the road isn't entirely shabby, one could argue that there are worthwhile questions about discipline and maturity involving this side.
The Timberwolves are also in much better form, winning their last three games to improve to 20-17 on the campaign. Furthermore, Minnesota has won each of its previous four meetings against Memphis, including six of the last seven.
Six of the last 10 head-to-head meetings have managed to stay under the total, and those lower-scoring games might suggest that the Timberwolves were better able to dictate much of the action.
However, what's entirely surprising is that Memphis is a pretty good defensive team in its own right. Memphis ranks fifth in Defensive Efficiency (109.2), just ahead of the sixth-ranked Timberwolves (109.3).
Yet, when you look at the tempo stats, the Grizzlies are currently the only one of the top five defensive teams not ranked in the league's bottom-half for pace of play.
Moreover, Memphis plays at the fastest pace in the league, with 105.37 possessions per game.
While there's nothing particularly wrong with playing a more uptempo style, it's a characteristic rarely seen among quality defensive teams, which tend to be adept at slowing the pace down.
Good defensive teams also know how to manage the game, which comes down to the discipline and maturity I mentioned earlier. The Grizzlies' breakneck pace may leave them vulnerable against the better defensive teams on the road in games involving a bit of chaos.
According to our Action Labs database, the Grizzlies are 0-5 straight up this season when facing an opponent with a Defensive Rating of 110 or better away from home.
The Timberwolves certainly fit our criteria for this angle. Given their current form and this head-to-head series, I think the home side offers some value as a short favorite.
Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves Prediction
After making my case for the Timberwolves to win the game, I sought another play I could use as part of a same game parlay. One option that quickly stood out was backing Minnesota's Naz Reid to score over 12.5 points.
While this projection of 12.5 is right around his average (12.78) and median (13) this season, in his last four meetings against the Grizzlies, Reid is averaging 15.25 points with a median of 15.5.
Moreover, his recent form does look promising, considering that he's scored more than 12.5 points in three straight games and five of his last six.
However, what I particularly like about this spot is that Reid has also exceeded this projection in five of his last six games against teams ranked in the bottom-half for points allowed against opposing centers.
It's also worth noting that Reid offers a threat from beyond the arc, which could benefit him if he finds himself matched up against Grizzlies center Zach Edey.
While Edey has undoubtedly improved his agility, he'll have to cover even more ground to guard Reid from the perimeter to the post.
Lastly, a potentially high-scoring game makes it even likelier that Reid plays his part in the scoring. The total is 4-1 to the Over when the Grizzlies face an opponent on the road with a Defensive Rating of 110 or better.
Best Bet: Timberwolves ML (-125)
Same Game Parlay Picks
- Timberwolves ML
- Naz Reid Over 12.5 Points
Parlay Payout: +202
Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies Betting Trends
