The start of the NBA season is just a few days away, and we’ve got you covered with how to bet every single team in the NBA to get started. Here’s a guide to every NBA win total, with this entry on the…
Washington Wizards
Win Total: 20.7 | Moore's Projection: 16.4
Bet/Lean/Pass: Under 20.7, 3 Unit Play.
HANDICAP
This is not going to be a long preview.
There are NBA players on this roster: Jordan Poole, Kyle Kuzma, Malcolm Brogdon, Bilal Coulibaly, Marvin Bagley, Sadiq Bey, Jonas Valanciunas, Corey Kispert. Those guys should all be on an NBA roster in three seasons. Richaun Holmes, Jaylen Nowell, and Kira Lewis are a little more up in the air but there's a good shot.
That's 10 players before the rookies.
But also, this team is horrible. They went with an interim coach in Brian Keefe. They're clearly looking to trade deals for future assets and rebuild. They need a star to build around and there are a lot of potential ones in this draft.
There is no franchise cornerstone.
No one looked more lost as a rookie in Summer League than Alexandre Sarr. (Sarr had 15 points and 4 rebounds in his preseason debut.)
This team just screams that they will eventually shut down or trade all the veterans and pivot to the draft. That's what's best for the franchise. But also, that's going to take less than 20 wins. Just to get a top-three spot and the lottery odds that go with it is probably going to require an under.
If the Wizards get off to a hot start, say they start 10-9, there will be trades to cash in on improved value of the roster and reorient towards development.
This is a practical bet. The Wizards need to be bad and the numbers assume they'll be bad, not awful. They can't afford to be anything short of truly awful.
TRENDS
Since 2011 not including the 2020 COVID-shortened season:
- Bottom-5 win totals are still 31-26 to the under (54%).
- It's hard to be truly awful in back to back seasons. Teams that were bottom-five in both offense and defense the prior season are 15-6 to the over.
- Teams that were bottom-five in both offense and defense with a bottom-five win total the following season are 9-6 to the over.
How It Goes Over
The veteran talent snags a few wins early as talk of the Wizards being the "surprise team" circulates before they lose power and fall off and somehow they are both awful and don't land top-four in the lottery.
How It Goes Under
They're bad. They want to be bad, and then they're bad. Hopefully they get Flagg.
Sneaky Guy I Like
Maybe (OK, definitely) Marvin Bagley II shouldn't have gone ahead of Luka Doncic in the draft, but he's managed to turn himself into a useful rotation player. He finishes at a good level, is a good rebounder, and has carved out a role.
He'll continue to get better and will wind up being useful to a good team at some point. Corey Kispert is another name most casual fans won't recognize, but he's really good and a smart team should try and pry him loose if the Wizards aren't super attached to him. Great shooter and finisher.
Data courtesy ofNBA.com/stats, Basketball-Reference.com, DunksAndThrees.com, and PositiveResidual.com.
