FanDuel's 3x2 boosts are back to start the 2022-23 NBA season.
For those unfamiliar, FanDuel offers a market on whether or not there will be two 3-pointers scored in the first three minutes of a game. It's not the most straight-forward boost to calculate, so I'll dive into my math here.
On opening night, FanDuel has boosted the 3x2 hitting in both Celtics-76ers and Lakers-Warriors from +330 to +400. It's +EV, which I'll explain below.
FanDuel QuickSlip: Click here to automatically fill your bet slip with this boost before Celtics-76ers tips off!
One thing I will say is that lineups vary (especially season to season) so I like to be conservative on these until we have season data. But the lineups are relatively close to last year's so this is how I am doing it.
Step 1: Get the total possessions each team averaged last regular season and convert it to possessions in 3 minutes.
- Sixers/Celtics combined to average: 197.4 possessions or 12.33 per 3 minutes.
- Lakers/Warriors combined to average: 203 possessions or 12.6875 per 3 minutes
Step 2: Find out how many 3's each team hit per possession.
- Sixers/Celtics: averaged a 3 on 12.65% of possessions
- Lakers/Warriors: averaged a 3 on 13.1% of possessions
Step 3: Convert the probabilities to odds, and compare to the boosted line
So now we look at what are the odds on X possessions and hitting in X percent of possessions, what are the odds of hitting 2?
- Sixers/Celtics: 47.5%
- Lakers/Warriors: 51%
As we covered in my +EV guide, once you have a probability, it's just like any other boost.
- Convert it to odds
- Compare it to the boosted line
- Get the EV
That means the EV here is +18.93%.
FanDuel QuickSlip: Click here to automatically fill your bet slip with this boost before Celtics-76ers tips off!
I considered betting 0.5 units due to the uncertainty of a new season and I am generally conservative with betting these, especially at these odds, but given the size of the EV (and it's not like Stephen Curry/Klay Thompson aren't playing or there is that much turnover on these teams), and the other notes, I am in for the full unit.
Other Notes
- There is a market for this on FanDuel i just don't like trusting one book's lines. The EV of the boost off of their own lines would be +14.67%
- I do think this method is a bit conservative, given that teams will usually have their best shooters on the floor to start a game, leading to more makes than we would project over the course of 48 minutes with more bench players involved.
