With the NBA All-Star festivities now in the rearview mirror, the playoffs are on the horizon. The Los Angeles Lakers and Milwaukee Bucks are favorites at +260 (bet $100 to win $260) to win the NBA Championship (PointsBet), and the Los Angeles Clippers are close behind at +300 — the only other team with better than +1000 odds to win it all.
Is there value betting on the chalk, or should gamblers take a chance on one of the underdogs to lift the Larry O’Brien Trophy?
To answer that question, I’ve created a consensus NBA Championship projection based on predictions from FiveThirtyEight, ESPN, NumberFire and Basketball-Reference. After determining each team’s chance to win the title I calculated the implied probability of winning it all based on the betting odds.
If the consensus projection is greater than the implied probability, there is value placing a wager.
Odds as of Monday morning and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).No strings attached. No rollover required.
NBA Championship Odds, Projections
According to the models, there is no value betting on either team from Los Angeles. The Lakers' odds would need to be closer to +450 and the Clippers' +900 in order to feel comfortable placing a bet.
The consensus projections instead see the greatest value in the Bucks.
Milwaukee Bucks
- Current odds: +260, Implied Probability: 27.8%
- Bucks wins the title 42.8% of the time
Here is what you need to know about the Bucks: Milwaukee has the best record in the NBA and ranks second in offensive and first in defensive efficiency. Mike Budenholzer’s team is winning on average by 12.1 points per game.
The Bucks could become just the 12th team in NBA history to have a point differential of +10. Of the previous 11 squads to accomplish the feat, 10 of them reached the Finals.
Oh, and Milwaukee has the best player in the world on its roster. Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging 30.0 points, 13.5 rebounds and 5.8 assists per game. He is the favorite to win back-to-back MVPs.
Three of the four models give the Bucks a better chance to win the NBA championship than their implied probability. With a 42.8% chance to win the title, there is value wagering on the Bucks down to +130.
