ESPN has published its latest MVP straw poll, and the Joker is again on top. But that doesn't mean you should be rushing to bet him. Nuggets center Nikola Jokic finished with 69 first-place votes in the latest straw poll, while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander finished second trailing by 45 first-place votes. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Luka Doncic, and Kawhi Leonard finished 3rd, 4th, and 5th respectively.
Antetokounmpo in 3rd place finished with just two first place votes. What that tells us is that this is a two-man race with Joel Embiid unfortunately disqualified due to injury.
The points gap between Jokic and SGA is significant: 180 points, but that's less than most of the gaps in final voting. Also notably, the leader in the straw poll has not won the past two seasons; the second-place finisher has caught him.
The 65-game minimum likely won't impact either player; both players have missed just two games against the allowed 17 with less than 30 games remaining. A dramatic injury is, of course, possible, but both players have some wiggle room for minor injuries and rest.
The race may genuinely come down to the battle for the 1-seed in the West. Currently, the Timberwolves lead the Western Conference, with the Thunder a game back and the Nuggets 1.5 games back. The Thunder have a tiebreaker advantage over the Nuggets after winning the season series 3-1. Here are the numbers via Basketball-Reference:
That gap in Box-Plus Minus matters; Box-Plus Minus has accurately predicted the top two finishers over the past decade. But also, the outright best Box-Plus Minus hasn't won the award every season. SGA also leads in EPM and Estimated Wins at DunksAndThrees.com, which has also been successful in predicting the winner.
Basketball Reference also has Jokic as the leader at 44%. So while he has a significant majority of the share of MVP equity, the field is still slightly favored. What's interesting in that equation is that from where I'm at, and from what the straw poll shows, this is a two-man race. So do the extra shares from the field go to Jokic or SGA and in what percentage?
More voters had Jokic 2nd than SGA first. We can extrapolate from that that if the first-place Giannis, Luka, or Kawhi convert to one of the top two, they're more likely to go toward Jokic.
A few things to consider:
- Both the Thunder and Nuggets' remaining schedules are easy; they rank fourth and fifth in easiest remaining strength of schedules. Minnesota, notably, ranks third-easiest.
- The Thunder have been better than the Nuggets the entire season in terms of point differential. Last 40 games, last 20 games, any split you want, the Thunder grade out better by margin.
- Denver has less incentive to push for the No.1 seed after winning the title. They have that championship confidence and don't worry about going on the road. (They should, their road splits are concerning, but that's a story for another time.)
- Jokic has a habit of throttling back a little bit whenever he becomes the front-runner for MVP. It happened in stark terms last season following the toxic conversations around his potential three-peat without a title (which he then promptly won) and it happened earlier this season when he was considered the favorite before Embiid started destroying everything in his path.
An interesting question is what happens if the Wolves finish with the No.1 seed in the West. My read on things is that if the Thunder finish No.1, there's a very strong chance SGA wins. If the Nuggets finish No.1, there's almost no chance Jokic won't win. But if the Wolves win, that probably helps Jokic. Even finishing above the Nuggets won't be enough if the Thunder don't secure the 1-seed.
(The Clippers are also in this conversation.)
If you're wondering why this is a two-man race when pundits are discussing Donovan Mitchell and Kawhi Leonard regularly… besides the straw poll numbers, here are the numbers:
Giannis belongs in the conversation; Milwaukee's relative struggles haven't impacted their win-loss record, and his production is on par with SGA and Jokic, if slightly behind. But Mitchell and Leonard, as good as they've been, haven't quite hit that level.
Mitchell and Leonard absolutely belong on a ballot. You can argue that Jalen Brunson also deserves a spot in the top five. But the straw poll puts things into perspective clearly. This is a two-man race between the best player in the world and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, having as great of a two-way season as you can have, with the youngest roster in the NBA.
In the market you can find Jokic at -150 and Alexander at +280, putting SGA at just a 26% chance. That's more than Basketball-Reference projects but the straw poll suggests it's light. This will be a tight finish for the award, but the best value for MVP is on SGA.
