Monday's NBA slate features a heavyweight battle between the Cavaliers and Warriors and a full slate of other games. Here are my NBA picks and best bets for Monday, December 30.
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Golden State Warriors
| Cavaliers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -110 | 231 -115o / -105u | -190 |
| Warriors Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -110 | 231 -115o / -105u | +158 |
There are notable injuries for Cleveland, the Cavaliers aren't on a back-to-back and Golden State is without Brandin Podziemski.
So, why is this line less than two possessions? Maybe this is a "trap line," which isn't something I really believe in, but does seem to catch bettors in various spots.
Regardless, I can't get to anything close to this number. I make this Cavs by double digits based on power rating and that's even giving the Warriors a generous home-court advantage. Cleveland hasn't been better than Golden State this season — it has been a league above.
The Warriors are a top-10 defensive team and the Cavs' schedule has been soft. (That's what playing in the East gets you.) But in four games against top-10 defenses, the Cavaliers have a 121 offensive rating, per Cleaning The Glass and a +6.4 spread differential.
Golden State is above .500 ATS this season, which is great, but the Cavs are 6-1 ATS against teams that are above .500 ATS. The Warriors can win this game outright, and if you're going to bet the Warriors +4.5, I would suggest taking a Warriors -2.5 alt line. But I'll back the Cavs to keep rolling vs. a Golden State team that the market is suggesting is still the team from November, though they've been anything but in December.
PICK: Cavaliers -4.5
Los Angeles Clippers vs. New Orleans Pelicans
| Clippers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -108 | 218.5 -112o / -108u | -184 |
| Pelicans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -112 | 218.5 -112o / -108u | +154 |
I don't mean to be reductive, but … "Clippers good, Pelicans bad."
The Pelicans are friskier at home as 'dogs, going 7-7 as the market has corrected to how totally lost they are. But they're still under .500 at home ATS and are facing the Clippers, who are 9-5 ATS on the road and 2-0 as a road favorite.
The Clips are also 7-1 SU with a +10.3 spread differential against teams with a bottom-10 net rating. Meanwhile, the Pelicans are 0-13 ([) with a -8.8 spread differential against teams with a top-10 defense.
You need to be able to score efficiently vs. the Clippers. Los Angeles is 10-5 ATS this season vs. teams that allow more opponent 3s than the opponent makes. They're also 8-4 ATS vs. teams under .500 against the spread.
I'll lay the points again.
PICK: Clippers -4.5
New York Knicks vs. Washington Wizards
| Knicks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12.5 -108 | 228.5 -110o / -110u | -650 |
| Wizards Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12.5 -112 | 228.5 -110o / -110u | +470 |
This is a "duplex" spot as these teams are playing twice in three days after the Knicks barely beat the Wizards in overtime on Saturday. Tom Thibodeau is 54-33-2 (62%) after failing to cover in the first matchup in a season.
The Knicks won't mess around here and will make sure this game isn't as competitive. My power rating makes this Knicks -15.7.
PICK: Knicks -11.5
