NBA Player Prop & Pick
Aaron Gordon Under 22.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
| Odds | Gordon U22.5 P+R+A (-115) |
| Time | 10 p.m. ET |
| Books Available | FanDuel |
The last 10 days probably haven’t been the easiest of Aaron Gordon’s life. The Nuggets forward has been tasked with checking Kevin Durant defensively, which has undoubtedly taken a toll on his offensive production.
Gordon 22.2 PRA over the five games thus far in the series. And since his strong Game 1, he has failed to clear this line in the last four matchups. His shot volume is relatively in line with his regular season averages, but he hasn’t been getting to the rim, seeing a 10% drop in frequency in shot attempts within 10 feet.
The reasoning for this is two-fold: For one, Durant (who is also matched up with Gordon almost exclusively on the defensive end) is a very capable rim-protector, with nine blocks in the series thus far.
Plus, Durant has sagged off of Gordon in an effort to provide help on Nikola Jokic in the paint. Not only has this defended against Gordon’s cutting lanes, but the nine-year veteran hasn’t been able to capitalize as a jump shooter either. Gordon has only converted four of his 12 catch-and-shoot opportunities this series.
Add in the fact that his rebounding chances have dropped from his averages, due to his focus on Durant defensively, and Gordon’s lessened involvement offensively has also deterred his assist opportunities, with only 23 in five games.
I expect a more assertive performance from Jamal Murray tonight, and Jokic continues to show why he’s a two-time MVP. I project Gordon’s production to stay limited, as I have him around 20 PRA tonight. I’d comfortably play this line down to under 21.5 PRA.
Pick: Aaron Gordon Under 22.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-115 at FanDuel) | Playable to 21.5
