The Denver Nuggets have won 3 in a row after falling down 0-2 to the Minnesota Timberwolves, and now look to close the series on the road and secure a trip to a second consecutive Western Conference Finals. With the pregame lines showing very little movement, indicating the market is very sharp from the start, the better way to bet this game is to look for props. Here are my favorite ones.
Favorite:
Nikola Jokic Assist Leader (-200)
Jokic has shown consistently to generate more assist in road games. We also have an injured Mike Conley, and a 2+ assist difference in props between both Jokic and Murray/Anthony Edwards. Instead of eating -140 juice to play the Joker over 8.5 assist, lets just play the assist leader -200 because the insurance allows him to do it with 8 or 7 in a potentially low scoring game. A lot of this game will depend on the whistle and who is making their kick out shots. Jokic will generate opportunities for his teammates, lets bet on them converting.
Pick: Nikola Jokic Assist Leader (-200)
Underdog:
Kentavious Caldwell Pope Over 1.5 3 (+120)
KCP has had a "down" series because his shot has not been falling. But the Nuggets continue to trust him, keep his usage up, and want him shooting. I think this is a buy low on a veteran, 2 time NBA Champion, to hit a few shots in a swing game. KCP has had steady minutes and not seen any dip despite thinking his fit wouldnt work- its working fine, the shots arent falling. I think the price is an overreaction to a line that was even money or -odds during the regular season, and with no minutes dip.
Pick: Kentavious Caldwell Pope Over 1.5 3 (+120)
Longshot: "The Desperation Parlay"
If you know me and my approach to betting, I am generally so anti parlay. There are a few spots worth considering it; and in an incredibly sharp game market with one team in full desperation mode, and at home, might be the perfect place to execute it. I am taking all available OVERS on points props on Timberwolves starters. The thinking here is the game total is very low, and the need to timberwolves players to possibly play extended minutes in a potential season ending game for them is high. So pair the two in an inverse correlation, what happens if KAT/Ant/Rudy/JMac all see 36+ minutes? Can they hit their props? Feel free to do this with other angles or stat sets, and your pay out should be at least 13:1 on a 4 leg sample size.
