The playoffs are officially here, and BetMGM is giving us the opportunity to bet on player playoff averages for the entire postseason. They set all of the lines at the players' season averages, which means there is value on the Over for players whose minutes will go up, and value on the Under for players whose minutes will go down. Let's dive into my three favorite picks.
Nikola Jokić
Every regular season, Nikola Jokić is a reluctant 3-point shooter. Since he became an All-Star (2019), he has never averaged more than 1.3 3s per game in the regular season. He is shooting 35% from 3 in the regular season in his career.
Then the playoffs come, and Jokić punishes teams for leaving him open, hitting huge 3s in big moments and shooting well from range. Over that same span, Jokić has only averaged under 1.3 3s one time, and that was the year they played only five games in the playoffs. Last year, he averaged 1.8 3s on 46% shooting in the playoffs, where it's a weapon for him.
This line shouldn't be set at his regular season number: Jokić changes his play style year after year.
The pattern is similar for points per game. Jokić eases up on his scoring burden during the regular season before ramping up in the postseason. In his five playoff seasons, on average, his scoring has gone up by 4.46 points frome the regular season. He is an unstoppable scoring machine who will score as needed to win games and win series. His minutes also go up as well.
Last year, he averaged 24.5 PPG in the regular season before bumping that up to 30 PPG in the playoffs. I'd put 30 at his floor, which makes these two my favorite playoff bets.
Bet: Nikola Jokić Over 1.1 3-pointers Made Per Game (-110, 1.5u, BetMGM) | Jokić Over 26.4 PPG (-110, 2u, BetMGM)
Josh Giddey
Josh Giddey averaged 12.3 PPG this season after averaging 16.6 PPG last season. His minutes dropped by six minutes per game this season, averaging only 25.5 minutes per game. He tied for the second-highest usage on the team, but his efficiency was the worst of all the rotation players.
Giddey's best skill is his passing. But as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander took on more of an offensive burden, Jalen Williams came more into his own and Chet Holmgren arrived, it became less needed for Giddey to have the ball in his hands. Since he isn't a threat off the ball, he was minimized as the season went along, and often missed time during crunch time. He is also the weakest defender in their starting lineup.
In fact, Giddey's 12.3 PPG average for the season includes the seven games he played without Gilgeous-Alexander, when he averaged 19 PPG; take those away and Giddey only averaged 11.6 PPG.
Mark Daigneault is a great coach, and the first adjustment for the Thunder in the playoffs will likely be the further minimization of Giddey. I think this line doesn't take into account the adjustment, and I'm smashing it.
Bet: Josh Giddey Under 12.3 PPG (-110, 1u, MGM)
Jayson Tatum
Jayson Tatum was the Celtics' full-time power forward this season, and he averaged 8.1 rebounds per game. The last two seasons in the playoffs, Tatum has averaged over 40 minutes per game, an increase of over four minutes per game from the regular season. During the playoffs last season, he averaged 10 rebounds per game, even though his rebounding percentage only had a slight increase from the regular season.
Tatum is going to be upping his minutes again in the playoffs, as the likely matchups might actually be tougher than expected. In the second round, Boston will play either Cleveland or Orlando, two mediocre shooting teams, and he'll have plenty of chances to grab defensive rebounds.
I think this line is ultimately too low with the increase in minutes, and the clear burden on Tatum to grab rebounds.
Bet: Jayson Tatum Over 8.1 RPG (-110, .5u, BetMGM)
