The Mavericks take on the Magic on Sunday and Luka Doncic is struggling to start the season, shooting 38% from the field and 29& from 3-point range. Is it time to bank on Doncic's resurgence, or will Luka Magic continue to fizzle out? Let's bet Luka Doncic's points on Sunday.
Luka Doncic Points Prop: Over/Under 27.5 Points
So, there's an interesting opportunity for an inverse-correlated parlay here. More points lead to an over, but with the Mavericks, tougher defenses cut down on easy passing opportunities and slow the pace. That means that when facing tougher defenses, Doncic tends to put up big scoring figures while the games often go under the total.
Since 2022-23, when the Mavericks face a team that allows 1.5 points below the league average for points allowed, the under is 19-17-1 — barely profitable.
However, the under when the Mavericks faced a top-five defense last season was 16-11. In those games, the average total was 220.1 (right around where this total sits). And Doncic scored over 28 points in 20 of those 27 games. So there's a trend in matchups like this to the over on Luka Doncic's points and the under on the game.
Meanwhile, Doncic has scored over this in four of his past five matchups vs. the Magic, despite the tough defense they present with defenders like Jalen Suggs.
Doncic has struggled so much from the field and still averaged 27 points per game. This becomes a question less about his ability to be effective and more about being the blunt force object to break down the tough defense's wall.
Rotogrinders projects Doncic at just over 28 and at 28.73.
The Mavericks' offense has been elite this season (top-five in schedule-adjusted offense), but Orlando is 20th in offense, and without Paolo Banchero. So, our pathways are a grind-it-out defensive game with the usual high usage from Doncic we've seen, or a dominant Mavericks win where Doncic and the Mavs score a lot but the Magic don't and the game still goes under.
