Last year, we hit bets on four of the six leaders per game markets, with wins on steals with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (depending on the book), assists (Tyrese Haliburton), blocks (Victor Wembanyama), 3s (Stephen Curry). Yet, I can't stop thinking about the misses on rebounds and points.
This year, the books have done a better job of setting lines than ever before.By my analysis, almost every market has the correct favorite, or close to it. Instead, this year we will be hunting value,and have a few parlays at the end.
Steals Per Game
Since Chris Paul led the league in steals for four straight seasons, and six out of seven, we have now had 10straight years with a different player who led the league in steals. Every single one of them averaged at least 1.91 steals per game, so we are looking for a player who will be above that threshold. Surprisingly, there are some consistent trends amongst all players who have averaged at least 1.9 steals during that span (27 different players):
- 26 of the 27 players played at least 29 minutes per game the prior season.
- Every single player had averaged at least 1.4 steals per game in a prior season
- They were all between 23 and 33 years old.
If we hone it down to the 10 winners, we have a few more trends:
- There are no repeat winners
- All but one are between 23-28 years old, with Butler being the only exception
- They all averaged at least 31 minutes per game the season they won
Just using the above exact criteria, limiting the age, and cutting out players who won't play enough minutes leaves us with six candidates. They are, with their best odds:
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+800)
Technically, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander did not lead the league in steals last season, as he finished .01 steals behind De'Aaron Fox. He was a steals machine early in the year before falling off late.
With Alex Caruso on this team, they should generate a lot of steals, with Gilgeous-Alexander leading the way. He should be the favorite for this award, but I can't bet him at these short odds.
Donovan Mitchell (+2500)
Donovan Mitchell will be 28 this season and averaged a career-high in steals last year. The Cavs have two dominant rim protectors and a new coach who may allow him to be more aggressive.
He is also a lock to play enough minutes this season. Donovan is extremely close to two steals per game needed to potentially lead the league next year, and these odds are too long.
Betting .4u at +2200 on ESPNBet (bet down to +2000)
Gary Trent Jr. (+25000)
I'm not sure why Trent's odds are so long. Trent played 28.1 mpg last season, just below our threshold. He played 32 the year before in Toronto, and Malik Beasley, who he is replacing as a starter, played 29.6.
Trent also averaged only 1.1 steals per game last season, but he was at 1.6 and 1.7 the two prior years. All that being said, he has frequently averaged high steals, and in a new situation, I think this is worth a nibble at long odds.
Betting .2u at +25000 on FanDuel (bet down to +10000)
Herb Jones (+2500)
Jones is probably the most impactful player on the Pelicans, because of his defensive presence. As the years have gone on, he has taken on more and more defensive responsibility, which has put him less into an off-ball role where he could get more steals.
He also has never played more than 30 minutes per game, and on a Pelicans team with a lot of players, Idon't think this is the season. Too many red flags here.
Luka Doncic (+12500)
I was surprised to see Doncic on this list. He has averaged 1.4 steals per game for two straight seasons. In the playoffs, he has bumped that up to 1.8 and 1.9. He is guaranteed to play enough minutes, is in better shape than ever before, and will be looking to prove something this season.
Betting .2u at +12500 on BetMGM (bet down to +8000)
Mikal Bridges (N/A)
Bridges comes to a new situation in New York. He hasn't averaged more than 1.4 steals per game since his rookie season. This may be a new situation, but I don't have confidence in him becoming a big steals player this year.
Jalen Suggs (+5000)
Suggs is an incredible defensive player. But I have no confidence in him to play enough minutes. He has played 27 minutes per game every stretch of his career, and he may be at that threshold because it's the max he can handle while giving maximum effort. Until we see him start to play more minutes, a jump in steals is unlikely.
3s Per Game
Well, sportsbooks have started to wise up here: you can't find Steph Curry any shorter than -250 on any book.
How likely is Curry to lead the league in 3s?
Every 3 point leader since 2016 has averaged at least four 3-pointers per game. Here is the list of players who have done that, and how many times, since 2016 (nine seasons): Steph Curry (eight times), Luka Doncic (once), Klay Thompson (once), James Harden (twice), Damian Lillard (three times), Buddy Hield (once).
Over the last four seasons, Curry has averaged at least 4.5 3s per game every year. All-time, James Harden is the only other player who has averaged over 4.5 3s per game, and that was in 2019 when he took 13.2 per game.
A bet on Curry is a bet on whether he plays enough games. In order for someone to pass him, they'd have to take almost 13 3s per game and Curry to have a down here.
But the risk of Curry getting hurt, or not playing enough games at his age, is real. I can't bet Curry at -250 outright (too much outlay for not enough payout), but I also don't see any other real contenders. Instead, we'll parlay him later in the article.
Points Per Game
Here are the trends for winners over the past 15 seasons:
- We have only had seven different winners over the past 15 seasons, and Carmelo Anthony and Doncic are the only two who have only won once. Repeat winners are common.
- The leading scorer averaged 31.1 points per game. The last nine have all averaged at least 30, and four of the last six have averaged at least 33. We are in a time that is good for high-point scorers.
- On average, they finished at least 10 points ahead of their team's second-leading scorer. The leader has finished at least seven points ahead in the last 12 seasons.
- Thirteen of the fifteen finished eighth or better the previous season in points per game, and the other two were hurt the year before. A little more than half finished in the top two the year before. The only real candidates are thereforeplayers who were top 10,or too hurt to finish top 10 last season.
- Their team won an average of 54 games, with 12 of the 15 having won 50+ games. We are looking for a player on a good team.
- The average winner has been 26.5, with only two winners being 30 or older.
- The average usage from basketball-reference has been 36%. The last eight leaders have all had a usage of at least 34.8%. In such a heliocentric ecosystem, we are looking for someone who is a clear heliocentric hub.
There are 11 candidates: The top 10 finishers last year in points per game, and one player who missed a large chunk of the season.
Kevin Durant andSteph Curry — These players are too old to lead the league in scoring, and I don't think either is a real candidate this season.
De'Aaron Fox, Jayson Tatum, Devin Booker, Nikola Jokic — These four players all play on a team with another real scoring threat, or defer too much to their fellow players to lead the league in points. They aren't high enough usage players.
The remaining five are the main candidates, and you can bet them all and if one of them wins, you'd make money at these odds.
Luka Doncic (+175)
Doncic is the correct favorite, and the league has seen multiple players repeat as scoring leaders. His scoring last year went down a little with the addition of PJ Washington, and it'll likely fall a little more with the addition of Klay Thompson.
I think his scoring average won't be as high as last year, which leaves some room for these other players to pass him. These odds have a little bit of value just given the high floor Luka is starting from. Betting .5u on Luka at +175 on Fanduel (would bet down to 150).
Joel Embiid (+300)
Embiid is a scoring machine. He averaged .8 more points than Doncic last year, but he only played 39 games.
It would be foolish for the 76ers to push him harder to play more minutes, and Embiid still has a knee brace on. Between the chance he doesn't play enough games, doesn't play enough minutes, and isn't at 100%, this is too much risk.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+500)
Gilgeous-Alexander was a model of consistency last season, hitting 30 points in a game more than anyone else. He's is also my main MVP pick and finished third last season.
But unlike some of the other players on this list, he doesn't play the same level of heliocentric style. SGA's usage has been right around 32.85% fortwo seasons in a row. With Josh Giddey gone, I think there is room to go up, but I anticipate it being spread more to Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren than Gilgeous-Alexander. I think he is the best bet to finish top five, but not a great bet to finish first.
Giannis Antetokounmpo (+1000)
Antetokounmpo finished second last season, and has never led the league in scoring. In 2023, he led the league in usage, which he also did in 2020.
Khris Middleton may be absent for a chunk of the season, and there is no guarantee Dame Lillard will return to his previous self. But to lead the league in scoring, Antetokounmpo would have to cross the 31-point-per-game threshold, and I'm just not sure he can get there, or whether the Bucks want him to carry that level of offensive burden.
Jalen Brunson (+5000)
Brunson had the best season of his career last year, upping his usage by five percent, his scoring by 4.5 PPG, and being more efficient than the prior season. These odds are long because it's assumed that Brunson has reached his peak.
Without Julius Randle last season, Brunson averaged 31.5 PPG. Every season of his career, he has gotten better, taking on more usage, being more efficient, and scoring more.
I think he is most likely at his peak, but I think there is a chance he can still get better. The Knicks also have injury threats in Karl-Anthony Towns and OG Anunoby and limited depth. These odds are simply way too long for the fourth leading scorer last season.
Betting .35u on Brunson to lead the league in scoring at +5000 on Draftkings (bet down to +2000).
Blocks Per Game
This one is just ridiculous.
Last season wewere able to bet Victor Wembanyama at +1500. Unfortunately, Wembanyama won't be plus money to lead the league in blocks again for years.
He averaged 3.6 blocks per game last season. Before Wemby, seven players had averaged at least three blocks per game in their rookie season. All seven of them averaged at least 2.9 bpg the following year.
I don't think there is a true threat to pass Wembanyama in blocks per game this season. I'm not betting a future at these odds (-480 is the shortest I've seen), but I am willing to throw it into a parlay.
Assists Per Game
Last year, Tyrese Haliburton was the clear man to bet. The prior year, he had become the first player to lead the league in potential assists the year before, but not lead the league in assists. But by the end of last year, Haliburton did not lead the league in potential assists.
As the season went on, Haliburton averaged fewer assists, going from 11.7 pre-all-star to 9.6 post. Part of this was his injury, but a big part was the elevation of Andrew Nembhard into the starting lineup. Nembhard is another point guard, which pushed Haliburton to play more off-ball, lowering his assists and assist chances.
16 of the last 20 leaders have been top three in assists the prior year, if you take into account Haliburton playing just under the threshold of games. Therefore, I'm looking at the two other players who finished second and third in assists per game last season:
Trae Young (+150)
Young is the obvious bet here. He led the league in potential assists last season and is now finally playing without Dejounte Murray.
He is always looking to set teammates up and will do so even more this season with the ball in his hands. Young is a bigger favorite to lead the league in this category, but he is the correct favorite and should lead the league a little less than 50% of the time.
Betting .25u on Young at +150 on ESPNBet (bet down to 130, or use the below parlay for more).
Luka Doncic (+850)
In 2019-20, the Lakers surrounded LeBron James with the most talent he has had since he joined the team. He moved into a de-facto point guard role, setting up Kyle Kuzma, Danny Green, Avery Bradley, and Alex Caruso. The team thrived, and he led the league in assists per game.
I bring up LeBron because Doncic is now in a similar situation. The Mavericks of the past were content to let him thrive on offense and try to surround him with strong defensive players. This year, they have gone the other direction, giving him more offensive firepower around him than ever before.
The addition of Klay Thompson gives Doncic the best 3-point shooter he has ever played with. He has two rim-running centers as well. After the trade deadline last year, he averaged 10.4 APG and led the league in potential assists. Even more so than Young, there is clear value here.
Betting 1u on Luka Doncic to lead the league in assists at +850 at DraftKings (bet down to 500, then start reducing unit size).
Rebounds Per Game:
Here are some trends for the leaders in rebounds per game over the past 21 seasons:
- The average age is 25.8. The oldest player to lead the league in rebounding is Garnett in 2007, at 30. The youngest is Dwight in 2008 and Love in 2011, at 22
- All but 3 of the last 20 leaders finished top 3 the year before. Kevin Love in 2011, DeAndre in 2014, and Capela in 2021. Capela only played 39 games the year before, but his rate would have been second in the NBA. Love and DeAndre’s both went from under 30 minutes a game to 35+. 10 of the last 21 led the league the season before.
- The average winner averaged 14.1 rebounds per game. 12.32 rebounds, which Sabonis averaged in 2023, is the lowest.
- The second leading rebounder (adjusted slightly) averaged 6.3 rebounds per game. Only one player had a teammate average over 8 rebounds a game. 10/21 didn’t have a teammate average 6+ rebounds, and another 5/21 had a teammate average between 6–7. (This is adjusted some by removing direct backups, and adjusting for players who missed half season).
- Team record doesn’t play too much of a role. We have had leaders on teams that won 25 games, and on teams that won 57 games.
- Over the last 11 years, the leader averaged 33.3 minutes per game. The previous 11? 37.3 minutes per game. We are seeing the league leader more likely to be someone with a higher rebound percentage, even while playing mid-30 minutes per game.30 minutes per game is the floor.
- Over the last 10 years, the average defensive rebounding percentage was 29.5%, and the offensive was 14%. The floor was 10% and 25.3% over the last 10 seasons.
So we are looking for players with a high rebound rate, a path to 33+ minutes per game, not too old, and not a great second rebounder on the team. Here are some candidates:
Rudy Gobert (+500) and Anthony Davis (+600)
Over the last 21 years, we haven't had a winner over 30. Athleticism wanes as you get older, and minutes are likely to go down as well. Even though they finished second and third last year, I'm avoiding both.
Nikola Jokic (+650)
Jokic's defensive rebounding rate has steadily fallen for three straight seasons. It would take him ramping up his minutes even more and being more aggressive for them to lead the league, and I just don't think he wants that.
Also, Russell Westbrook is someone who hunts rebounds now. Jokic isn't a stat-hunting player, and I don't expect that to start now.
Giannis Antetekounmpo (+3000)
Similar to Jokic, he just isn't taking on the same rebounding burden, especially since Bobby Portis got there. He played the most minutes since 2018 last season, and his rebounds per game went down.
Jusuf Nurkic (+10000)
Nurkic has never averaged more than 28.2 minutes per game over a whole season. The Suns have a new coach, and it's not clear exactly how much Mike Budenholzer intends to play Jusuf Nurkic.
I'm not sure what the exact plan is for Bud, but he has a tendency to lean more on his centers, and we have seen some of them have their best seasons under him. Nurkic odds are long, but he was fourth in the league last year in rebounds per 36 minutes. If the minutes go up, he could lead the league.
Betting .2u on Nurkic at +10000 on BetMGM (would bet down to 4000)
Jalen Duren
Duren was right next to Nurkic in terms of rebounds per 36 minutes last year, with the fifth most. His minutes went up last season under Monty Williams to 29.6. He would be the youngest player to lead the league in rebounds in 21 seasons, which makes me nervous that we are a year too early.
But he is the likely starting center and new coach JB Bickerstaff is more likely to play two big men than Williams was. There are a bunch of reasons why he won't win: too young, too good of a secondary rebounder, unclear minutes. But his rebounding rate means the upside is there.
Betting .3u on Duren at +1900 on Draftkings (would bet down to 1400).
Victor Wembanyama
Wembanyama averaged 12 rebounds per game after the All-Star break last season. The Spurs don't have a great second rebounder (Jeremy Sochan with 6.4 RPG), and it's unclear how many minutes per game he will play.
If they want to win and push it, he could play up to 35 minutes, in which case he should be the second favorite here. I believe he will play fewer minutes: but I'm willing to take the risk and bet it on the chance he plays more.
Betting .4u on Wembanyama at +1100 on BetMGM (would bet down to 700).
Domantas Sabonis (+220)
Sabonis played more minutes last year, his defensive rebounding rate went up slightly, and he averaged a career-high in rebounds by 1.4 RPG. Sabonis also played every game last year and had no health issues all season long.
I'm not ready to buy Sabonis as a player who grabs almost 14 rebounds per game. There are a myriad of reasons his rebounds could have jumped, and not all of them are due to simply becoming a better rebounder.
My premise last year was that he is most likely to average 12.0 rebounds per game, and another player will likely surpass him. I still hold this to be true, which is why I'm passing at such short odds (but am willing to get it in a parlay).
Parlays
On FanDuel, you can parlay leaders together.
A parlay of Curry leading the league in 3s per game, and Wembanyama leading in blocks per game, comes out to -149. This is a great odds.
I also view this as an opportunity to get a little better odds on the favorites for the other awards, which I passed on above.
Here are the leader per game parlays I'm betting:
- 1u on Curry 3s, Wembanyama blocks at -149
- .25u on Curry 3s, Wembanyama blocks, Young assists at +335 (down to 275)
- .25u on Curry 3s, Wembanyama blocks, Doncic points at +360 (down to 275)
- .15u on Curry 3s, Wembanyama blocks, Gilgeous-Alexander steals at +1405 (down to 1200)
- .05u on all five of the above at +10666
