I woke up this morning thinking: How good are the Heat? How bad are the Celtics?
Odds imply the Celtics have better than an 80% chance to move on to the NBA Finals. Yeah, they're not that good. Tonight's odds have the Heat as 8.5 point underdogs. They're definitely not that bad.
My pick today could be as simple as Heat +8.5, as many of my Action Network colleagues have taken. But what fun would that be?
So why not make a Same Game Parlay?
Here's my philosophy on Same Game Parlays. The outrageous ones are tempting and get all the pub, but if you want to win consistently, you gotta say in the +500 or less range.
So let's take Heat +8.5. I like the rest they've gotten, while the Celtics had to go seven in a physical battle vs. the 76ers.
I also like the data. There's good math for even a Heat moneyline wager as teams that have played in a Game 7 are 33-52 (39%) straight up in the next round's Game 1 since 1988.
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Jayson Tatum was unstoppable in Game 7, scoring 51 points.
He also scored one point in the first quarter of Game 6 and went 5-for-21 from the field.
I have no faith in consistency here.
You know who is consistent? Jaylen Brown. In 23 of his last 30 games, he scored at least 23 points. His total tonight is 23.5. I like that bet. Jaylen Brown over 23.5 points.
I could stop there, but I'm gonna take a gamble and ride Jimmy Butler.
I know what you are gonna to say. Butler is the king of inconsistency. Except he's not.
When he needs to go ham, he goes ham.
It's why he averaged 24.6 points a game in his five-game series against the Knicks and 37.6 points a game against the Bucks.
When the Heat need him, he goes to work. The Heat are going to need him more. Why? The Celtics have arguably the best defense in the league and Butler is going to have to take charge with his magic to give them a chance. Take Butler at over 25.5 points.
Pick: Heat +8.5/Jaylen Brown over 23.5 points/Jimmy Butler over 24.5 points gives you odds at +350 at BetMGM on a very winnable parlay.
