Thunder Over The Mavericks
Before the playoffs, I thought this series was a tossup, with the Mavericks playing so well and the Thunder finishing the season lackadaisically. But one lesson we have seen in the playoffs time and time again is that the beginning of the season is more reflective than the end, and the Thunder were killing it at the beginning of the season.
Put it simply, the Thunder have the better offense, better defense, and better coaching. They have four players that can be put on Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving and do a reasonable job, while the Mavs have no one who can reasonably stay in front of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander or Jalen Williams (as a reminder, they struggled with Harden). They don't have a big center who can punish Chet Holmgren, and without Kleber, they are losin their best versatility player for double big alignments. The coaching is a huge factor, because Kidd often has no clue how to push the right buttons, while Daigenualt has already shown an ability to do so.
This Thunder team is really, really good. The destruction of New Orleans was no joke. Their biggest vulnerability is against Jokic, and if they get the Wolves in the next round, they could win the whole thing. They just don't have a lot of weaknesses, and as a young team, they look better each game.
For the Mavs, it's been mentioned by others as well, but Luka's health and injury is a real concern. Luka's first round performance was by far the worst of his career. Before this 6 game series, Luka had never had a 6 game stretch in the playoffs where his true shooting percentage was below 53% – it was 51.5% against the Clippers. His knee isn't right, there isn't that much recovery time, and the Mavs are in trouble if he isn't a full go.
We already have .5u on the Thunder to win this series, that we bet when the Mavs were still in Round 1. I'm adding two more bets:
- .25u on Thunder to win at -120 on DraftKings
- .25u on Thunder -1.5 series spread at +190 on DraftKings
This puts us at .75u on the Thunder to win outright (I'd add up to that if you missed the first part with the Mavs). +190 is just a tad too long here; the Mavs have some downward potential, and in round 1, we saw the Thunder jump on top early and never look back.
Finally for this series, FanDuel and ESPN have a prop for SGA to score 25+ points in every game of the series, and for Doncic to score 30+ in every game, at similar odds. SGA had the most games this season scoring 30+, and second most scoring 25+. He was the most consistent scorer in the NBA this season. At his season long rate, this is plus even if the series goes 6 or fewer, and even if it goes to 7 games. Betting .25u on Gilgeous-Alexander to score 25+ every game at +480 on FanDuel (450 on ESPNBet). I'd bet this down to 425.
For points leader: in the first round, SGA averaged 27.3, Luka 29.8, and Kyrie 26.5. The Thunder defense is better than the Clippers, and with Luka banged up, I think Shai should be much closer to Luka in terms of odds here. Betting .25u on to lead the series in points at +350 on FanDuel (bet down to +250).
The Thunder are also +800 to win the NBA title. I'm ready to add to our futures title portfolio for the first time since the start of the season, especially with Denver in trouble, and put a small sprinkle here. Adding .5u on Thunder at +850 (DraftKings).
Celtics vs. Cleveland
I've said this in articles, on Twitter, discord, and a podcast, but one of my betting philosophies is betting against the Celtics series spread no matter what. But first, we need to take a second to talk about Cleveland's first round performance.
Cleveland had potentially the worst offensive performance in their first 7 games of the playoffs of any team all time. I took a look at their performance and compared it to the league average for that season, and they were 14.2 points worse than any other team, second worst all time, essentially tied with the worst (at 14.3). It's definitely the worst amongst teams that actually won their series.
This Cleveland offensive talent isn't that terrible: they were average in the NBA this season. They just shot so terribly against the Magic, mostly on jump shots. They went from 45 to 29% on long twos, 37.4 to 25% on corner threes, and 37 to 29% on non-corner threes. That corner three percentage is especially astounding: how can an entire NBA team shoot 25% on the easiest three point shot in the NBA?
Bickerstaff is not a creative or innovative coach, and that likely contributes to the struggles. The Celtics won't have the same length as the Magic without Porzingis, but they still have a multitude of good defenders. I'm not sure how, but I have a feeling they will be better on offense this round than the last.
The spread lines for this series are -250/+190 for Cavs +3.5, and +145/-175 for Cavs +2.5. I don't really want either of these numbers: I don't feel great about the Cavs winning one early, and this team's terrible offense makes me think there may 30% chance they get swept. The market, though, has moved, and I think there is value on the Cavs at the massive number. On FanDuel, you can bet Cavs +2.5 at +235: this is just too great. I'd bet down to +200 for .5u.
Brandon Anderson suggested waiting to bet this series until after Game 1, where Boston with so much time off will probably destroy the Cavs. I'll likely have a bet then, hopefully on closer to even money on +3.5 for the spread.
For the Celtics, missing Porzingis is a big deal. One of their biggest issues in previous years has been the lack of a scoring threat at the 5, and teams able to hunker down on their wings. Porzingis changed that. If he is going to miss more time after this round, it will effect them in tougher series (like the the Knicks).
I do have one best bet right now for this series:
Jayson Tatum
Assists Leader, +300, .5u (would bet down to 220)
This version of the Celtics really came into being in 2022, when Tatum became the team leader. Since then, Tatum has led (or tied) for the team lead in assists in every series they have played in (8 straight series). Garland is the favorite as the point guard for the Cavs, but as mentioned, they are coming off the worst offensive performance we've seen. Betting on someone on their team to lead the series in assists is a bet on them to turn around their offensive performance, and that almost certainly won't happen game 1. Even with the Cavs terrible shotmaking, Garland only averaged .7 more potential assists than Tatum last round. These two should be closer to the co-favorites, instead of one being listed at way longer odds.
In the playoffs, teams key in on Tatum more, he looks to make the pass, and he has the ball in his hands more. It leads to more assists, which is the basketball reason. But the trend is the big indicator here, and I'm betting on it continuing.
