When opening numbers for Saturday's NBA slate were released, the Mavericks-Warriors matchup (8:30 p.m. ET) was given the third-highest consensus total of of the eight games at 225.5. The earliest openers even had it up at 227.5.
As of writing on Saturday afternoon, it's down to 219 — the fifth-highest number on the slate (see live odds here).
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So what gives?
Well, a couple things.
First, the Warriors announced Steph Curry would be resting for the game. That took the total off the board for the night, and caused a re-opening number of 224 this morning.
Next, sharps decided that the adjustment for Curry wasn't enough. They immediately steamed the under at 224, driving most books to settle around the 222 range.
They didn't stop there, though.
According to Sports Insights' Bet Signals, which are triggered whenever sharp action causes a market-wide line move, wiseguys came back to hit the under at 222.5, and again at 220, resulting in the current total.
The betting market percentages also point to some professional action backing a low-scoring game. While 61% of bets are behind the under — which probably has something to do with Curry's absence — it's also drawn an impressive 93% of actual money being wagered. That means it's attracting the much bigger bettors — the ones more likely to be sharps.
