Last season, the Cleveland Cavaliers snapped a four-year playoff drought by 51-31 and earning the fourth seed in the East. While the Cavaliers lost in five games in the first round to the New YorkKnicks, the young core four of Darius Garland, Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, and Jarrett Allen offered promise for this season and beyond.
Currently, the Cavaliers are currently still above .500 at 13-12, but are in ninth place in the Eastern Conference. It will be hard for them to gain much ground in the next month or so following the injuries to Garland. During Thursday night's loss to the Celtics, Garland collided with center Kristaps Porzingis and left the game. He did return and finish the game, but yesterday it was revealed that he suffered a fractured jaw and will be out several weeks.
Mobley already had missed the last four games because of a left knee injury. Mobley underwent an arthroscopic procedure on that knee and will be out for six to eight weeks. Cleveland has a -3.9 net rating with Garland and Mobley both off the floor this season. Their absences means others will have to step up. Naturally, Mitchell and Allen among those in that group. However, in this piece I will be examining how players props for the Cavaliers will be impacted without Garland and Mobley.
Donovan Mitchell
Whether Garland and Mobley are healthy or not, Mitchell has the green light in the Cavaliers' offense. Mitchell averaged 28.3 points per game on 20.6 field goal attempts per game last year and he is at 27.6 points per game on 21 field goal attempts per game this year. Moving forward, I project Mitchell's points line to be in the low to mid 30's. He is at 33.5 points per game on FanDuel tonight against Atlanta.
While the matchup against the Hawks is a certainly a factor, Mitchell has averaged 34.1 points per game in 13 games without Garland since the start of last season, including his 71-point performance against the Bulls last season. He has scored 34 points without Garland in two of four games this season and 7-of-13 overall.
Mitchell can certainly get there as he has proven, but that is a high number to ask him to clear on a consistent basis. For starters, Mitchell can be streaky at times. He is coming off consecutive solid games at Boston in which he scored 29 and 31 points. However, in the 12 games prior, Mitchell shot 40.2% from the field and 31.3% from three while averaging 24.7 points per game in that span.
Between off shooting nights, blowouts, and drawing more double teams, there are a lot of paths to Mitchell staying under 34 to 35 points moving forward. If Mitchell does draw more attention, I believe his assists will have more value. Using tonight's line as an example, Mitchell is at 5.5 assists. He has gone under this line in all four games without Garland this season, but he went over in six of nine games last year. He had eight assists in five of those games and reached double-digits twice.
You will probably be able to get Mitchell for eight assists in the +200-300 range and 10 assists in the +800 range. Tonight, he is at +270 for eight and +750 for 10 on FanDuel. If you want a value play backing Mitchell's points, you will likely need him to score 40 points.
Caris LeVert
Caris LeVert figures to get a substantial boost in volume with Garland on the shelf. He already is the fourth-leading scorer on the team at 15.3 points per game just behind Mobley's 16 per game. LeVert is coming off a 26-point game at Boston on Thursday. It was fifth 20-point game this season.
When Garland missed time earlier this season, LeVert averaged 22.3 points per game over a three-game stretch. It was part of a larger stretch in which he averaged 18.8 points per game over his first 10 games this season. He does not have a line for tonight's game yet, but I expect LeVert's points to be in the high teens to low 20s moving forward.
His points, rebounds, and assists (PRA) combos could be value as well. LeVert averaged 4.4 rebounds and five assists with Garland out and 4.7 rebounds and 4.1 assists over his first 10 games. He is still at 3.6 rebounds and 3.6 assists per game this season. LeVert's PRA line at 25 would be a very exploitable line, but I doubt the books will be that generous. In most games, the line will likely be in the 29.5-30.5 range.
Craig Porter
Craig Porter will likely be the biggest beneficiary in terms of minutes in Garland's minutes. The undrafted guard from Wichita State took advantageous of his opportunity in summer league. He averaged 12 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 5.3 assists. More than this numbers is that he looked the part- quick, tenacious, and decisive.
In the regular season, Porter has played in just 14 games and averaged 14.3 minutes a night, but he has shown flashes when given an opportunity. He scored in double digits in five consecutive games in November. That includes 16 points and five assists in 35 minutes.
Porter is averaging 7.2 points, 1.9 rebounds, and 2.4 assists, which extrapolates to 18.2 points, 4.7 rebounds, and 6.1 assists per 36 minutes. He may remain coming off the bench if head coach J.B. Bickerstaff decides to go with Mitchell, Levert, and Max Strus in the starting lineup instead. That would keep his lines lower, possibly around 10.5 points. If he is a starter, his line will likely between 12.5-14.5 points.
Porter may offer real value with rebounds and assists as well. In addition to his summer league numbers, Porter averaged 6.2 rebounds and 4.9 assists in 34 minutes per game at Wichita State. His lines may start off lower given his current production. However, if he gets 25 minutes at his current rates, that would averages out to 3.2 rebounds and 4.2 assists per game. I would expect lines in the range of 3.5 rebounds and 4.5 assists, but he will cash at plus odds on the nights he gets six or eight in either category.
Additionally, he is available in 99% of ESPN fantasy leagues. I would recommend picking him up, particularly with a matchup against Atlanta tonight.
Jarrett Allen
Jarrett Allen has missed time with injuries himself and has been trying to round back into form. He is averaging 12.4 points and 8.2 rebounds per game this season, down from the last two years when he averaged 16 and 11 and 14 and 10 last season. However, he is still showing 66.7% from the field and the difference over the last two years is essentially the two less field goal attempts per game (9.7 to 7.7) he is averaging.
However, I would not expect Allen's scoring to pick up significantly in the wake of the injuries. He has played just two games without both Garland and Mobley since the start of last season and he scored six and 21 points in those games. In six games without Mobley, he has scored 15 points just once and he was below 10 points in four times. Without Garland, he has scored 15 points in five of 13 games. He did score 20 in three games, but he is averaging just 11 points overall without him.
The Cavaliers primarily use Allen as a roll man in their pick-and-roll sets and let him get buckets by cleaning up offensive rebounds. He appears to have a better rapport with Garland than Mitchell as he has been playing with Garland for the last four seasons. So it stands to reason why his numbers do not pick up without Garland on the floor.
Without Mobley, Allen could see a spike in rebounds even though that has not shown up yet. In six games without Mobley since the start of last season, Allen has cracked 10 just twice. However, he had nine rebounds in 25 minutes against Miami last Friday and 7 rebounds in 15 minutes against Orlando on Monday.
Keep in mind that had been on a minutes limit between 26-28 minutes for the past month as he recovered from an ankle injury. That appears to be over as he has averaged 38 minutes a night over the last two games against Boston and he pulled down 10 rebounds on Thursday. Tonight, his line is at 10.5 rebounds against the Hawks and will likely be the case moving forward.
