The Oklahoma City Thunder (30-5) and Cleveland Cavaliers (31-4) will face off in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 7 p.m. ET from Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse in Cleveland. The game will broadcast live on ESPN.
The Cavaliers are 2.5-point favorites over the Thunder on the spread, with the over/under set at 230.5 total points. Cleveland is a -145 favorite to win outright, while Oklahoma City is +120 to pull off the upset.
Let's get to my Thunder vs Cavaliers predictions and NBA picks for Wednesday night.
Thunder vs Cavaliers Picks, Prediction
Spread
I recommend taking the +2.5 points with the Thunder at BetMGM. Since my model projects OKC closer to a 1.5-point underdog, we're getting about a full point of value at the current number.
Moneyline
The Thunder moneyline listed at +120 offers solid value, given that my model projects we should probably be getting closer to +105.
Over/Under
I lean toward the Under, with FanDuel offering a total of 230. Although my model has a number closer to 224, it's worth noting that if we're projecting a Cavaliers defeat here, three of their four losses this season exceeded the total.
My Pick: Thunder Moneyline (+120)
Thunder vs Cavaliers Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 230.5 -110 / -110 | +120 |
| Cavaliers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 230.5 -110 / -110 | -145 |
- Thunder vs. Cavaliers spread: Cavaliers -2.5
- Thunder vs. Cavaliers over/under: 230.5 total points
- Thunder vs. Cavaliers moneyline: Cavaliers -145, Thunder +120
- Thunder vs. Cavaliers best bet: Thunder ML (+120)
My Cavaliers vs. Thunder best bet is on Oklahoma City moneyline at +120, with the best line currently available at FanDuel. But as always, make sure to shop for the best line using our live NBA odds page.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Cleveland Cavaliers Preview
The city of Cleveland will feel like the center of the NBA universe tonight as the 31-4 Cavaliers welcome in the 30-5 Oklahoma City Thunder. You rarely have two teams in the NBA off to such prodigious starts. The only other instance of two teams starting the year with a record of 30-5 or better was in the 1971-72 season with the Lakers (32-3) and the Milwaukee Bucks (30-5).
Another intriguing aspect of this matchup is both teams enter with a double-digit winning streak. OKC is undefeated in 15 straight games compared to the Cavaliers, who have won their last 10.
To add to the nostalgia, this is only the third time in NBA history that two teams with winning streaks of at least 10 games will meet head-to-head. On Jan. 26, 1995, when the SuperSonics hosted the Jazz, both teams were on 10-game winning streaks. Roughly five years later, on Feb. 29, 2000, the Lakers visited the Trail Blazers, and both had won 11 straight entering the contest.
That's enough memory lane for now. What's interesting about tonight's matchup is both teams have different paths to success. The Cavaliers have the league's No. 1 offense, while the Thunder boast the best defense.
Given all the hype surrounding this event, which could potentially be an NBA Finals preview, it could very well have a playoff vibe. As a result, if I had to choose between the two, I'd much rather have the more defensive-minded team in my pocket.
The Thunder's 102.7 Defensive Rating is almost unheard of in this modern era of basketball, considering how the 3-point shot has revolutionized the game. For example, the Timberwolves were viewed as a defensive juggernaut last season, yet their 108.4 Defensive Rating is almost six points higher than the Thunder's.
While the Cavaliers have undoubtedly done a tremendous job in Kenny Atkinson's first year as their head coach, I'm not sure some of their offensive numbers are sustainable. Cleveland is shooting a league-best 40.4% from beyond the arc after finishing 15th in the same category last season at 36.7%.
Moreover, Cleveland is practically playing with the same roster, so it's not like it suddenly upgraded itself with a bunch of sharpshooters.
However, the Cavaliers can thrive off their spacing, and their movement on the court is often synchronized with frontcourt players moving in unison along the baseline. At the same time, the guards follow a similar pattern on the perimeter. Another thing they do is utilize a cutter who attacks the basket alongside a ball-handler while another player remains in a passing lane beyond the arc for a kickout.
Although such a strategy might not seem too complex, opposing teams must be disciplined in their defensive schemes to ensure success. I'm fairly certain that if I can identify some of the Cavaliers' tendencies, the best defensive team in the league will likely pick up on them as well.
OKC also boasts the best perimeter defense (32.7%) despite ranking 20th in opponent 3-pointers allowed. In addition, when you look at the league-wide hustle stats, the Thunder rank third in contested 3-point shots (17.9).
Not many teams are as sound defensively to thwart the Cavaliers. OKC just happens to be the best of the bunch.
Thunder vs Cavaliers Predictions, Best Bets
After examining the two other matchups between teams with double-digit winning streaks, I wasn't entirely surprised to learn that both home teams lost.
The Cavaliers are the favorite and play at home, so I get the sense they'll feel a bit more pressure than the Thunder, who come into the contest as underdogs. This matchup is also eerily similar to the Cavaliers' last statement game when they put their perfect 15-0 record on the line against Boston and lost to the defending champions 120-117.
This game is essentially a free hit for the Thunder against a Cleveland offense that's clearly outperforming its underlying numbers. Thus, there's a decent chance we see at least some regression, and this Thunder team is best suited to make that happen.
Cavaliers vs. Thunder Best Bet
- Thunder ML (+120)
