No. 5 seed San Diego State (31-6) will face No. 9 seed Florida Atlantic (35-3) in the first matchup of the Final Four in Houston, Texas.
The Aztecs of San Diego State are one of the best defensive teams in the nation, entering the game with the fourth-ranked defense, per KenPom’s Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, giving up just 89.8 points per 100 possessions.
The Owls of Florida Atlantic bring excellent balance in conjunction with their charmed run this postseason. They feature the 24th-most efficient offense and 30th-most efficient defense in the nation.
Both teams are stacked with plenty of talent, but this matchup will come down to the staunch San Diego State defense matching up against the sharpshooting Florida Atlantic offense.
Let's get into our two-leg same game parlay below.
Leg 1: Trust San Diego State's Defense
The elite Aztec defense has been an absolute force this season and has maintained that momentum through the postseason, culminating with SDSU's first ever Final Four appearance.
There are a couple of technical anecdotes that I’d like to point out that highlight the dominance San Diego State has imposed on its opponents this season.
San Diego State is 14-22-0 against the over this season, hitting the under in 61.1% of contests.
Remarkably, the Aztecs have hit the under in 12 straight games and are 14-1 against the under since February.
SDSU has the 10th-best under margin in the nation, falling short of the total by an average of 4.0 points.
Why does San Diego State have such an elite defense? Well, a lot of it comes down to its ability to defend the arc. The Aztecs rank second in the nation in 3-point defense, holding opponents to a 27.8% hit rate from downtown.
3-point variance is a key driver for success — particularly in the postseason — and San Diego State has demonstrated an uncanny ability to shut down opposing teams in the tournament.
Through the first four rounds of the tournament, San Diego State has held opponents — Charleston (20.8%), Furman (23.1%), Alabama (11.1%) and Creighton (11.8%) — to an average 3-point rate of just 17.0%.
First Leg: Under 131.5 (-105)
Leg 2: Who Wins Straight Up?
San Diego State is the least efficient offense left in the tournament, but that has done nothing to dampen its results recently. The Aztecs are 14-1 since February and have covered six straight.
Even though they have the least efficient offense left in the tournament — with an efficiency rank of 75th, per KenPom, and 61st, per Bart Torvik — this is still a very capable unit that has the ability to score into the 70s.
The Aztecs are not a team of sharpshooters, ranking 218th in effective field goal percentage with a 49.6% rate. However, what San Diego State does very well is control tempo, forcing teams into its style of slower and lower-scoring play.
The Aztecs rank 266th in the nation in Adjusted Tempo, with 65.7 possessions per 40 minutes.
Additionally, the Aztecs are the better team on the offensive glass and from the free-throw line, both of which I expect to marginally move the needle in what should be an extremely hard-fought game.
The Florida Atlantic defense is very good — ranking 24th in KenPom’s efficiency ratings — but will not offer the test that San Diego State’s last two opponents Alabama (3rd) and Creighton (14th) posed.
While defense was the key driver in both of those wins, the Aztecs' offense was able to do enough to get the win.
Most importantly, the San Diego State offense has acted as a counterbalance to the elite defense, leveraging tempo to control the pace of the game and doing the little things right.
Second Leg: SDSU ML -150
Final Four Same Game Parlay for FAU vs. San Diego State
In terms of style of play, both teams are coming from different poles.
The San Diego State defense is the hottest defense in the nation and should be able to sufficiently neutralize Florida Atlantic’s deep threats. As has been the case in this tournament, 3-point variance will likely be heavily in San Diego State’s favor.
On offense, I think that San Diego State will be able to do enough to get past the Florida Atlantic defense, which is comparatively easier to both of the Aztecs' previous matchups.
Look for the marginal gains to be in the nitty gritty for the Aztecs as they win on the offensive glass and at the free-throw line.
I am projecting San Diego State as 1.5-point favorites in this game, and I have the total at 129.5. I recommend playing a SGP of San Diego State moneyline and the under at +215 or better.
