2024 NCAA Tournament Predictions
East Region
Round of 64
We're not fading the No. 1 team in the nation against a 16. This UConn team doesn't display any of the traits that Virginia or Purdue had exposed in their No. 1 seed losses.
FAU has been picked in around 55% of brackets, which is right in line with the odds I give the Owls to advance, so I'll back them as the (slightly) more likely team to advance since this isn't a leverage spot.
UAB is easily the worst No. 12 seed by my power ratings and while SDSU is the worst No. 5 seed, I have the Aztecs avoiding the upset around 75% of the time. That isn't enough leverage at UAB's current 21% advance rate as picked by users on ESPN.
I have Auburn power rated as a borderline No. 1 seed so while Yale may keep it close early, Auburn has been on fire winning their last six games by a margin of 18.8 points against tougher competition.
BYU grades out more like a borderline No. 4 or 5 seed for me while Duquesne is easily the worst 11 seed. I'll take BYU.
When I adjust for the fact that Terrance Shannon missed a few games midseason, I have Illinois and Duke near neck and neck for the best No. 3 seed. Morehead State is a competent No. 14 seed, but Illinois will be too much to handle.
This is one spot where I'm different from my boss, Sean Koerner, in that my power ratings favor Washington State to a small degree. With Drake being picked in 53% of ESPN brackets, I'll take the Cougars to avoid the seed-line upset.
Both SDSU's are in the same region but unlike San Diego State, I don't have South Dakota State advancing. Iowa State is a top-six team by my power ratings so I expect it to go far.
Round of 32
UConn has such a tough draw that there's no need to oust it at this point in the tournament, so I'll go with the clearly superior team. However, spoiler alert, you'll see UConn tumble before the Final Four.
Like I said in the Round of 64, Auburn, by power rating, could be as high as the fourth No. 1 seed if we just graded on predictive metrics. The Tigers had a 35-day stretch when they lost five of their seven games but have been completely dominant since.
The difference between the No. 10 and No. 16 teams in college basketball by my power ratings is not enough to justify the Illini's 72% advance rate as picked by users. I'll grab some leverage with BYU.
Given it was already a tough call to have Washington State advance, I'll bounce it against one of the best teams in the nation.
Sweet 16
It's upset time! These teams would have a likely spread of around 2.5 to 3 points in favor of UConn. That's only in the neighborhood of 60% for UConn to win, but the Huskies picked in 80% of brackets. I'll grab what would be about a 20% leverage play.
While I'm tempted to take BYU here, I'm already getting enough leverage in how I'm playing this bracket with the Auburn upset of UConn that I don't necessarily need extra in this spot.
Elite Eight
Instead, I'll take the leverage here. More people have Iowa State advancing to the Final Four than Auburn, but I have the Tigers as the slightly better team.
West Region
Round of 64
I'm not fading any one seeds this year.
I understand Michigan State is being picked in 60% of brackets, but I do actually have Sparty 11 spots higher than Mississippi State in my power rankings.
There are several pieces of research out there that show preseason rankings matter as a measure of underlying talent when it comes to predicting March Madness. Michigan State was voted fourth in the preseason AP poll while the Bulldogs were just 34th. Even KenPom had the Spartans 13th to 27th for Mississippi State.
I'm relatively in line with this 60-40 split, so I'll back the team I have favored.
Saint Mary's is being chosen in 70% of brackets, but I personally make this closer to a 3.5 to 4-point spread. That'd imply only around a 63% advancement rate for the Gaels.
I also think Grand Canyon produces serious matchup problems for St. Mary's. If we look at the Four Factors, St. Mary's defense is top-three nationally in both shot-stopping (eFG%) and rebounding (DR%) while being mediocre in conceding fouls and forcing turnovers. The problem is, Grand Canyon draws fouls at the 10th-highest schedule-adjusted rate in the nation. That's exactly how the Antelopes beat the East Region's No. 5 seed San Diego State earlier this season. GCU had a 62% FTA/FGA rate, making 23 of 31 free throws.
What that does to St. Mary's is it negates their shot-stopping strength, because you can't guard free throws. It also reduces the Gaels' rebounding edge since the Antelopes make more than 75% of their free throws.
On the other side of the court, St. Mary's themselves don't draw many fouls and instead rely on their shooting. However, Grand Canyon has a top-25 eFG% defense after adjusting for schedule. Add in the extremely slow plays St. Mary's plays, and that just gives them fewer possessions to realize their efficiency advantage.
I love the Antelopes to pull off the classic 5-12 upset in this spot.
I don't mind a Charleston pick here, but Alabama is a strong team that takes high-quality shots. The Tide should avoid an early upset.
I have the Lobos favored over Clemson, but they are being picked in just 47% of brackets. I'll take the better team.
I'm not going to get cute here because I don't have Baylor going far, so I'll just play the percentages that the superior team advances.
I make this almost a true coin flip so instead of flipping a coin or looking at the 51-49% pick rate, I'll be a homer and back the Flyers since two of my brothers went there.
As much as I'd love to pick LB for a number of reasons (that's my dog's name!), Arizona is just way too good.
Round of 32
I've flip-flopped here plenty given that UNC is being picked in 87% of brackets. In fact, as I'm typing this I changed my mind.
I originally had UNC slated to be bounced in the next round anyway, so I'll grab the extra leverage here. Michigan State has a low floor but also a high ceiling given their underlying talent.
This is a nice spot to back the Spartans in a large pool.
I'd love to advance the Antelopes here, and I definitely see a path for them to make the Sweet 16 (they are, after all, one of my eight teams in the Giffen Guide to March Madness). But in a bracket format where I already have grabbed plenty of leverage on the field, I'll play it a bit safe, especially because I (originally) had Alabama beating UNC in the Sweet 16.
The Lobos are criminally under-seeded relative to where my power ratings have them (more like a No. 7 seed), while Baylor is over-seeded and is more like a No. 4 seed. I'll roll with the upset in a spot where the gap is a lot closer than the public realizes.
Sorry to my brothers.
Sweet 16
I honestly can see Michigan State winning this and like Grand Canyon, Sparty is one of the teams I'm targeting in my Giffen Guide to March Madness. But in a similar vein to why I picked the Crimson Tide over GCU, I'll take the safer option and roll — pun intended — with the Tide.
I've made a bunch of wild picks in this region, so it's time to not get too crazy. I'll back the strongest team in this region to make the Elite Eight.
Elite Eight
By eliminating UNC early, having the No. 11 seed make the Sweet 16 and including a 5-12 upset, we've already racked up enough chaos. Arizona to the Final Four.
South Region
Round of 64
Houston isn't losing … yet.
I have Nebraska as a slight favorite over Texas A&M, and that's the way the public is also leaning. I'll just back the team I have favored with an eye to the future.
In a game dripping with Giffen family implications (I went to James Madison for undergrad while my youngest brother started at Wisconsin before transferring to VCU), I'll take the loss here as I don't see any leverage with 33% of users picking my Dukes, which is right in line with what I make it.
I have Duke power-rated like a No. 3 seed while Vermont is the worst of the No. 13 seeds by my numbers.
I really want to take my Wolfpack here, given I got my mathematics Ph.D. in Raleigh and attended nearly every home game for five years. That said, the public has gone too far with this in picking NCSU at a 48% rate.
Texas Tech is still the better team, although I do love the Wolfpack in my moneyline rollover where you can get +195 odds on them advancing to the second round.
Kentucky is the weakest No. 3 seed, but it's a touch too early to bounce them against the worst No. 14 seed.
I have Colorado power rated as the 22nd-best team, meaning I actually have them as a stronger team than Florida.
Honestly, lame stale boring brackets are no fun. I'd have Marquette losing in the next round to Colorado anyway, so let's have a little extra fun in a game between the best No. 15 seed and the worst No. 2 seed with the returning Tyler Kolek, who may not be 100% healthy.
Round of 32
This game really, truly scares me because I think Nebraska has an upset-worthy profile against Houston. This reminds me a lot of UVA vs. UMBC, with the slow-paced team that allows a 40%-plus 3PA/FGA ratio facing a team that chucks 3s at a 44%-plus clip.
I view Nebraska as a better UMBC while Houston and the 2018 UVA team are relatively comparable.
That said, I'm advancing the Cougars with an eye toward the fact that I don't have them winning it all. Nebraska makes for an awesome moneyline rollover team.
I'll advance the better team with the easier first-round matchup, in case my JMU Dukes pull off the 12-5 upset of Wisconsin.
Nearly 80% of brackets have Kentucky advancing. That's way too high given Kentucky is more over-seeded than Texas Tech.
In a devastating blow to the Commonwealth of Kentucky, both their teams in this region lose in the Round of 32.
And even if Colorado faces Marquette, I have the Buffs advancing much more frequently than they are getting credit for. That said, if Boise State beats Colorado, I may flip my Western Kentucky/Marquette pick and have Marquette reach the Sweet 16 over either Florida or Boise State. Check back in after the First Four games are complete.
Sweet 16
There isn't really any leverage to be gained on either side here, so I'm rolling with the favorite.
I have these teams as nearly a coin flip with the Buffaloes as the nominal favorite. But in this hypothetical matchup, users are picking Texas Tech far too frequently.
Elite Eight
The Cinderella story ends here for Colorado when they run into the nation's second-best team.
Midwest Region
Round of 64
There won't be a repeat of last year … will there?
Utah State has a wide range of outcomes, but I do have TCU as the better team and am in line with the 58/42 split the public has so I'll take the team I have rated better.
McNeese is fairly seeded as a 12, but Gonzaga I have as more like a No. 4 seed, so I'll roll with the slightly under-seeded team here.
I won't have Samford advancing to the Sweet 16 and I'd choose Gonzaga over Kansas as I have the Bulldogs favored, so let's have the underdog pull off the first-round upset.
I have Kansas easily graded as the worst No. 4 seed, while Samford is neck-and-neck with Yale for the best No. 13 seed. We also get a nice bit of leverage too as Kansas is being picked in 83% of brackets compared to the about 75% the market and my power ratings, give the Jayhawks.
I have this game as nearly a true coin flip, so I'll take the team only being picked 46%. That said, in my Giffen Guide to March Madness, I pick South Carolina precisely because we're talking betting odds and matchups rather than bracket theory. I like the Gamecocks' matchup against Creighton much better than Oregon's matchup with the Blue Jays.
Creighton could struggle given how reliant they are on the 3-pointer, but I'll go the conservative route here given I've already picked a wild upset in this region.
A whopping 78% of people are picking Texas, but either of these No. 10 seeds would have a significantly better than 22% chance to advance against the Longhorns.
Tennessee is a solid No. 2 seed and I have them handling last year's Cinderella story.
Round of 32
Given my lack of faith in TCU or Utah State to actually be the one to face Purdue, I can't pick either to upset the Boilermakers.
The Zags advance and shut down the Cinderella story for Samford.
Had I picked South Carolina, I'd be much more tempted to pick an upset of Creighton, but I'll advance the Blue Jays here as the superior bird over the Ducks.
Tennessee is easily the strongest team in its sub-regional and I have them making it out accordingly.
Sweet 16
I can see either team advancing here but for future reasons, I'll advance the Boilermakers
Given my uncertainty on Creighton should they face South Carolina, and how strong the Volunteers are, I'll take Tennessee in this spot.
Elite Eight
I do agree with Sean's analysis that Tennesee is a better pick here from a leverage standpoint, but I'm looking ahead to the Final Four to a potential Purdue/Houston game, given my reservations about a possible Houston/Nebraska game.
Final Four
I already have Auburn advancing out of the toughest region. There's every chance in the world that the Tigers aren't in this spot given how difficult the East Region is. That makes it wise for me to back Arizona who are favored over UNC to come out of the West Region.
I can't get over the fact that Houston is always on upset alert given their slower pace and reliance on opponents not getting hot from downtown. Last year Houston was ousted by a Miami team that went 11 for 25 (44%) from beyond the arc. If that happens at any point from the Round of 32 to the Elite Eight against three quality opponents, it may not even be Houston in this spot.
National Championship
Given I think Purdue is over-picked in this matchup, I'll take the leverage here with Arizona in a game that projects mightily close but where the Wildcats are only being picked as the champion in 5.5% of brackets compared to 9.9% for Purdue.
