There are just two ranked teams in action in college basketball on Thursday, but if you're looking for the best true betting value, we have you covered.
In fact, our staff has three mid-major games to break down for their top picks.
So, here's college basketball best bets, including three predictions for Thursday, January 23.
College Basketball Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 7 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Merrimack vs. Saint Peter's
Because Joe Gallo and Merrimack run zone defensively, I'll call this squad the new Syracuse. Well, the new Syracuse is working because Merrimack is 6-1 in MAAC play, its a top-three defensive team and it has the best player in the MAAC in Adam "Budd" Clark.
This should be a defensive battle, as Saint Peter's can't shoot (344th in shooting percentage). The Peacocks struggle on the defensive glass, and they're super sloppy with the basketball. In fact, nearly 19% of their possessions end in turnovers, which is just horrific.
That means Merrimack can take advantage with second-chance buckets and by winning the turnover battle.
Also, as I mentioned, Merrimack has a star, which is needed in a low-scoring, potentially tight game. Clark is averaging in 19.6 points and 5.7 assists per game this season, and EvanMiya has him rated as the second-best low-major playmaker in the entire country, behind Barrington Hargress of UC Riverside.
I would play Merrimack up to one possession (three points).
Pick: Merrimack -1 (Play to -3)
Marshall vs. Georgia State
I think this is a really good spot for Georgia State to bounce back, as it's coming home after back-to-back road losses.
Also, I'm banking on a Marshall letdown after it beat Coastal Carolina last Saturday. The Thundering Herd are a good home team, but they're just abhorrent on the road (316th nationally in Haslametrics' away-from-home metric).
They beat and covered against Coastal mostly because of some favorable shooting variants, which they've been getting so far in conference play. They're shooting 35% from 3 while opponents are shooting 27%, and I expect that to flip at some point.
Meanwhile, I'm expecting positive regression for the Panthers, as they've only shot 28% from 3 in conference play.
Also, from a schematic perspective, I've been really unimpressed with the Herd's offense so far. Marshall is just spamming middle pick-and-roll with zero spacing. They can't get to the rim because the lanes are so crowded, so they end up in the mid-range way too often.
Georgia State hasn't been a great ball-screen coverage unit, but it's been a good ball-screen denial unit because it mixes in some zone and mucks it up underneath. Also, the Panthers never foul, which is good to keep Marshall off of the charity stripe.
Finally, on the other end of the court, Georgia State plays almost exclusively through the post, and it'll have a big size advantage over the Marshall interior. Teams can just post and repost the Herd over and over, as they rank third-to-last in the Sun Belt in 2-point shooting allowed and allow the most post-up points per game.
The Herd defend the 3 well, but they just funnel everything down low while not being able to stop that attack.
I like the matchup, and ultimately, I think this is a good buy-low, sell-high spot to snag a home 'dog catching -4 or better.
Pick: Georgia State +4.5 (Play to -4)
Bryant vs. New Hampshire
I'm likely going to get snakebitten for this, but I'm still not totally in on Bryant. The Bulldogs have looked absolutely dominant in the past four games, but they also played three of the four at home, and they've been much worse on the road this year (4-7 ATS, 304th in Haslametrics' away-from-home metric).
Ultimately, I still wonder if the offense is sustainable, as so much of this Bryant offense is running into the middle of the floor and hitting floaters or runners.
Rafael Pinzon makes the unit much more sustainable, but how long can he shoot over 50% from 3?
The newfound offensive rebounding prowess really changes the dynamic of the team, but its numbers on the glass might be a tad inflated after it grabbed 17 against UMass Lowell, which has a rebounding problem.
Meanwhile, New Hampshire has looked like a totally different team lately.
The Wildcats' interior defense has been much improved. They held both UMBC and Binghamton to 47% shooting, and that's good news because those two teams crash the rim downhill like Bryant.
Point guard Sammy Pieces has been unconscious; he's been dragging the Wildcats and keeping them competitive in these games. He's been among the most impressive JUCO transfers at the low-major level.
Since everyone is so enamored with Bryant right now, we're getting a bit of an inflated number here, thus I'm going to take a shot with New Hampshire.
Pick: New Hampshire +14.5
